The Qingdao Citymedia Co,. Ltd. (SHSE:600229) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 27%. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 23% in that time.
After such a large drop in price, Qingdao Citymedia Co's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 10.6x might make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 27x and even P/E's above 48x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
With its earnings growth in positive territory compared to the declining earnings of most other companies, Qingdao Citymedia Co has been doing quite well of late. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think the company's earnings are going to fall away like everyone else's soon. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
Does Growth Match The Low P/E?
Qingdao Citymedia Co's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very poor growth or even falling earnings, and importantly, perform much worse than the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 15% gain to the company's bottom line. The latest three year period has also seen a 7.9% overall rise in EPS, aided extensively by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been respectable for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the one analyst covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 15% over the next year. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 41% growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we can see why Qingdao Citymedia Co is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on while the company is potentially eyeing a less prosperous future.
The Final Word
Having almost fallen off a cliff, Qingdao Citymedia Co's share price has pulled its P/E way down as well. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that Qingdao Citymedia Co maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast growth being lower than the wider market, as expected. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Qingdao Citymedia Co that you should be aware of.
If you're unsure about the strength of Qingdao Citymedia Co's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.