If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an eye out for. Typically, we'll want to notice a trend of growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and alongside that, an expanding base of capital employed. If you see this, it typically means it's a company with a great business model and plenty of profitable reinvestment opportunities. Although, when we looked at Hitevision (SZSE:002955), it didn't seem to tick all of these boxes.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Hitevision:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.095 = CN¥371m ÷ (CN¥5.1b - CN¥1.1b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).
Therefore, Hitevision has an ROCE of 9.5%. On its own that's a low return, but compared to the average of 5.0% generated by the Electronic industry, it's much better.
In the above chart we have measured Hitevision's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Hitevision here for free.
What Does the ROCE Trend For Hitevision Tell Us?
On the surface, the trend of ROCE at Hitevision doesn't inspire confidence. Over the last five years, returns on capital have decreased to 9.5% from 34% five years ago. And considering revenue has dropped while employing more capital, we'd be cautious. This could mean that the business is losing its competitive advantage or market share, because while more money is being put into ventures, it's actually producing a lower return - "less bang for their buck" per se.
On a related note, Hitevision has decreased its current liabilities to 23% of total assets. So we could link some of this to the decrease in ROCE. Effectively this means their suppliers or short-term creditors are funding less of the business, which reduces some elements of risk. Since the business is basically funding more of its operations with it's own money, you could argue this has made the business less efficient at generating ROCE.
The Bottom Line
From the above analysis, we find it rather worrisome that returns on capital and sales for Hitevision have fallen, meanwhile the business is employing more capital than it was five years ago. Yet despite these concerning fundamentals, the stock has performed strongly with a 24% return over the last three years, so investors appear very optimistic. Regardless, we don't feel too comfortable with the fundamentals so we'd be steering clear of this stock for now.
On a separate note, we've found 2 warning signs for Hitevision you'll probably want to know about.
While Hitevision may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
