It's not possible to invest over long periods without making some bad investments. But really big losses can really drag down an overall portfolio. So consider, for a moment, the misfortune of Denali Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:DNLI) investors who have held the stock for three years as it declined a whopping 77%. That might cause some serious doubts about the merits of the initial decision to buy the stock, to put it mildly. And the ride hasn't got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 45% lower in that time. More recently, the share price has dropped a further 18% in a month.
The recent uptick of 3.9% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.
Denali Therapeutics wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.
In the last three years Denali Therapeutics saw its revenue shrink by 2.0% per year. That is not a good result. The share price fall of 21% (per year, over three years) is a stern reminder that money-losing companies are expected to grow revenue. This business clearly needs to grow revenues if it is to perform as investors hope. Don't let a share price decline ruin your calm. You make better decisions when you're calm.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Denali Therapeutics is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Denali Therapeutics will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)
A Different Perspective
Investors in Denali Therapeutics had a tough year, with a total loss of 45%, against a market gain of about 20%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 3% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Denali Therapeutics you should be aware of.
Of course Denali Therapeutics may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
