Despite an already strong run, CNNC International Limited (HKG:2302) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 33% in the last thirty days. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 22% in the last twelve months.
Following the firm bounce in price, given close to half the companies in Hong Kong have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 8x, you may consider CNNC International as a stock to avoid entirely with its 13.7x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
CNNC International certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, CNNC International would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 277%. Still, EPS has barely risen at all from three years ago in total, which is not ideal. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.
Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 23% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.
With this information, we find it concerning that CNNC International is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Key Takeaway
The strong share price surge has got CNNC International's P/E rushing to great heights as well. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
Our examination of CNNC International revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
Before you take the next step, you should know about the 2 warning signs for CNNC International that we have uncovered.
If you're unsure about the strength of CNNC International's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
