To avoid investing in a business that's in decline, there's a few financial metrics that can provide early indications of aging. When we see a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) in conjunction with a declining base of capital employed, that's often how a mature business shows signs of aging. This indicates the company is producing less profit from its investments and its total assets are decreasing. And from a first read, things don't look too good at RXO (NYSE:RXO), so let's see why.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for RXO:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.076 = US$92m ÷ (US$1.9b - US$728m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).

Therefore, RXO has an ROCE of 7.6%. On its own, that's a low figure but it's around the 8.7% average generated by the Transportation industry.

Above you can see how the current ROCE for RXO compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us

We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at RXO. About two years ago, returns on capital were 13%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. Since returns are falling and the business has the same amount of assets employed, this can suggest it's a mature business that hasn't had much growth in the last two years. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on RXO becoming one if things continue as they have.

What We Can Learn From RXO's ROCE

All in all, the lower returns from the same amount of capital employed aren't exactly signs of a compounding machine. Investors must expect better things on the horizon though because the stock has risen 2.3% in the last year. Either way, we aren't huge fans of the current trends and so with that we think you might find better investments elsewhere.

If you'd like to know about the risks facing RXO, we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should be aware of.

For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.