China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601601) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 14% in the last month. It's not great that the stock is down over the last three years. But on the bright side, its return of -34%, is better than the market, which is down 28%.
While the stock has risen 8.6% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the three years that the share price fell, China Pacific Insurance (Group)'s earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 12% each year. The 13% average annual share price decline is remarkably close to the EPS decline. So it seems like sentiment towards the stock hasn't changed all that much over time. It seems like the share price is reflecting the declining earnings per share.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
This free interactive report on China Pacific Insurance (Group)'s earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, China Pacific Insurance (Group)'s TSR for the last 3 years was -25%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that China Pacific Insurance (Group) shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 2.3% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 0.6% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand China Pacific Insurance (Group) better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for China Pacific Insurance (Group) you should be aware of.
Of course China Pacific Insurance (Group) may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
