周二公布的数据显示，美国1月CPI降温不及预期，同比增速由12月的3.4%放缓至3.1%，市场预期放缓至2.9%，环比增长未如预期放缓至0.2%，而是企稳12月的0.3%；1月核心CPI同比增速持平12月的3.9%，未如分析师所料放缓至3.7%，环比还由12月的0.3%加快增长至0.4%，创八个月最高环比增速。The three major US stock indexes almost hit their biggest daily decline in a year. The decline narrowed at the end of the session, and the Dow closed down more than 500 points to the biggest decline in five months. The small-cap stock index closed down nearly 4%; the chip stock index fell more than 2%; after falling more than 3% at the beginning of the session, it fell slightly to a record high, and Arm fell nearly 20%; the regional bank NYCB fell more than 6%; the AI concept stock C3.ai fell by nearly 8%, but SMCI rose more than 2% to a record high; Lyft rose more than 60% after the earnings report, and then regained more than half of the increase or less than 20%. China's stock index fell nearly 3%, NIO fell more than 6%, and Station B fell more than 5%.
After the CPI was announced, 10-year US Treasury yields rose more than 10 basis points, breaking 4.30% for the first time in two months. The two-year yield rose above 4.60%, hitting a new high since the Federal Reserve meeting in December last year, once rising nearly 20 basis points; the US dollar index jumped to a three-month high; gold fell more than 2% from the daily high; spot gold fell below $2,000 for the first time in two months. The yen fell below 150 for the first time in nearly three months; Bitcoin fell by 50,000 US dollars after hitting a new high of more than 2 years, and once fell back to 2,000 US dollars. The offshore renminbi fell more than 200 points and fell below 7.23 in the intraday period, hitting a three-month low.
After the CPI, crude oil returned most of its gains, closing at a new high of more than two weeks. US oil closed up more than 1%, seven times in a row; US natural gas fell six times in a row, hitting a new low of more than three years. Lunxi rose six times in a row and hit a new high for half a year; Luntong rebounded over the past few days; and Lunxi lead fell to a 15-month low for five consecutive years.
According to data released on Tuesday, the US CPI cooling fell short of expectations. The year-on-year growth rate slowed to 3.1% from 3.4% in December, and market expectations slowed to 2.9%. The month-on-month growth rate did not slow to 0.2% as expected, but stabilized at 0.3% in December; the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI remained flat at 3.9% in December, not as expected by analysts. The month-on-month growth rate also accelerated from 0.3% in December to 0.4%, the highest month-on-month growth rate in eight months.
CPI inflation showed signs of a steady rise in the beginning of the year. The data severely dampened the market's expectations that inflation would continue to cool down, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to delay starting interest rate cuts. After the CPI was announced, swap contract pricing showed that the probability that traders expected the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in May was drastically reduced, halved to about 32% from about 64% before the CPI was announced; the first rate cut when the pricing was fully digested was postponed from June to July. The market currently predicts that the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points or 100 basis points four times this year is only about 50%, while a month ago in mid-January, it was also expected to cut interest rates by a total of about 170 basis points this year.
After the CPI was announced, US equity bonds plummeted. The price of US Treasury bonds dived, and the yield jumped more than 10 basis points in the intraday period. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond rose above 4.30% for the first time in two months. The interest rate sensitive two-year US bond yield hit a new high since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in December last year. The intraday increase extended to nearly 20 basis points; the US dollar index hit a new high since November last year; the three major US stock indexes almost hit their biggest daily decline in over a year, and the S&P 500 recorded the biggest CPI release date in more than a year.
At a time when the US dollar strengthened, non-US currencies generally fell. The yen fell below the 150.00 mark against the US dollar for the first time in nearly three months. Market speculation that the Japanese government might interfere in the foreign exchange market was rekindled. Bitcoin, which hit a new high of more than two years after breaking through the 50,000 US dollar mark on Monday, once fell back to nearly 2,000 US dollars, ending the longest continuous rise in a year.
Among commodities, under the impact of a jump in the US dollar and rising US bond yields, gold dived and quickly stopped rising and falling. Spot gold fell below the $2,000 mark intraday for the first time since the December Federal Reserve meeting. Both futures once fell more than 2% from the intraday high level before the CPI was released. Futures fell to an important support level of $2,000, the worst single-day performance since the beginning of January.
However, even though the US CPI returned most of the day's gains after the announcement, international crude oil eventually maintained its intraday gains and remained high for more than two weeks, and US oil continued its upward trend for more than a week. The commentator said that geopolitical tension and OPEC reports that are optimistic about the prospects for oil demand are boosting oil prices. Negotiations between the US, Egypt, Israel, and Qatar on a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip failed to reach a breakthrough on Tuesday; Yemen's Houthis continued to launch attacks in the Red Sea; the OPEC monthly report continued to anticipate relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024 and 2025, and raised economic growth forecasts for these two years, believing there is potential for further upward movement. '
US natural gas has continued to fall over the past week. Commentary said that gas prices have been hit by both warm winter weather and abundant supply, and US natural gas inventories are still far above the five-year average. However, if a storm occurs in late winter, market sentiment may change rapidly.
The three major US stock indexes almost hit the biggest daily decline in a year, and the Dow recorded the biggest decline in five months. Small-cap stocks, bank stocks outperformed the larger market, and Nvidia rose for a while
The three major US stock indexes collectively opened lower and maintained a downward trend throughout the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 700 points in midday trading. At one point, it fell nearly 760 points or nearly 2%. The S&P 500 index fell more than 1% in early trading, and fell slightly more than 2% during the mid-day low. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell more than 2.2% at the beginning of the session, narrowed to less than 2% in early trading, widened to more than 2% in midday trading, and fell nearly 2.5% at a new low. If the midday decline continues, the three major indices may all hit their biggest daily declines since February 21, 2023, but the declines all narrowed at the end of the session.
In the end, the three major indices collectively closed down. The S&P and NASDAQ fell for two consecutive days, both recording their biggest declines since January 31, the day Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted after the Federal Reserve meeting that interest rates would not be cut in the short term. S&P closed down 1.37%, the biggest drop on the monthly CPI release date since September 2022, at 4953.17 points, breaking the low since last Monday, February 5. The NASDAQ closed down 1.8% to 15655.60 points, breaking its low since February 6. The Dow closed down 524.63 points, or 1.35%, the biggest closing drop since March 9, 2023, to 38272.75 points, breaking the low since January 31.
The small-cap stock index Russell 2000, which is mainly value stocks, closed down 3.96%, the biggest decline since June 2020, outperforming the market, and falling sharply after rising for three consecutive days until the closing high level since December 28, 2023. The Nasdaq 100 Index, which focuses on technology stocks, fell about 2% at the beginning of the session and closed down 1.58%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology components in the NASDAQ 100 Index, fell 2.6% at the beginning of the session and less than 2% in early trading, all of which continued to fall from the high closing history refreshed last Friday.
All major sectors of the S&P 500 were completely destroyed. With the exception of essential consumer goods, which fell nearly 1%, and healthcare, which fell nearly 0.9%, other sectors fell by at least 1%. Non-essential consumer goods in the sectors of Amazon and Tesla, which led the decline, fell about 2%, interest-rate sensitive real estate fell 1.8%, and utilities fell nearly 1.7%.
Leading technology stocks fell sharply, and some of them narrowed their declines in the intraday period. Tesla, which increased the price of various Model Y models in Germany, closed down nearly 2.2%, falling two times in a row after four consecutive increases to the lowest level since February 5.
Among the six major FAANMG technology stocks, Amazon fell more than 3.8% at the beginning of the market, closing down nearly 2.2%, falling two consecutive lows since February 1; Facebook's parent company Meta fell nearly 3% at the beginning of the market, closing down nearly 1.9%; Microsoft trading initially fell 2.9%, closing down 2.2% at the beginning of the market, closing down 1.6%, all falling from two consecutive days until February 6; Apple closed down 1.1% at the beginning of the trading session, and fell 1.6% in the early morning and Zeng Wu trading. Up, close down 0.6%, down two days in a row to the lowest level since January 24.
Chip stocks generally fell for two consecutive days, and the decline narrowed in early trading. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and semiconductor industry ETF SOXX fell more than 3% at the beginning of the session, closing down about 2% and nearly 2.1%, respectively, and continued to decline after reaching record closing highs last Friday. Despite being sharply raised by UBS from $580 to $850, an increase of 46.6%, Nvidia still fell more than 3.6% at the beginning of the session, leading the decline among the seven major technology stocks including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Nvidia, and Tesla. It rose more than 1% after early trading, then turned down again in midday trading, and closed down nearly 0.2% after hitting a record closing high for two consecutive trading days; Arm, which had risen by more than 90% on Monday, closed down 19.5% for the first time since the release of its earnings report last Thursday; The D market fell more than 4% at the beginning and closed down 0.2 %; By the close, Micron Technology fell nearly 5%, Ansemi fell nearly 3%, Qualcomm fell 2%, Intel fell nearly 2%, and Broadcom fell more than 1%.
AI concept stocks generally followed the market decline and outperformed the market. At the close, BigBear.ai (BBAI) fell more than 8%, C3.ai (AI) fell nearly 8%, Palantir (PLTR) fell more than 4%, SoundHound.ai (SOUN) fell more than 3%, and Adobe (ADBE) fell 1.6% at the beginning of the session, but after falling nearly 3.6% at the beginning of the session, it turned up early trading and closed up 2.4%. It will rise for seven consecutive days and hit a record closing high for seven days.
Popular Chinese securities generally declined. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) closed down 2.7%, falling to a high closing level since January 12, which was refreshed for two days. KWEB and CQQQ closed down 2.8% and 2.2%, respectively. Following Bitcoin's sharp rise, the two Bitcoin mining giants plummeted on Monday. Canan Technology and Yibang International closed down 7.5% and 13.9%, respectively. Among other individual stocks, by the close, NIO Auto fell more than 6%, Station B and Dada fell more than 5%, Jinshanyun fell more than 4%, JD, NetEase, and Xiaopeng Motors fell more than 3%, Baidu fell nearly 3%, Alibaba dropped more than 2%, and Ideal Auto, Pinduoduo, and Tencent fans fell nearly 2%.
The bank stock index, which had been rising over the past few days, fell sharply, underperforming the general market. The overall banking index KBW Bank Index (BKX) closed down nearly 3% and will fall back to its closing low since January 18 after two consecutive days of rise; the regional banking index KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) closed down 4.5%, and the regional bank stock ETF SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) closed 4.2%, all falling to a closing low since November 30, 2023 after two consecutive days of gains.
Among regional banks, New York Community Bank (NYCB), which closed down slightly after surging more than 10% in Monday's intraday session, fell more than 8% in early trading and closed down more than 6%; at the close, Alliance Western Bank (WAL) fell nearly 5.8%, and Keycorp (KEY) and Zions Bancorporation (ZION) fell more than 4%.
Among the individual stocks that announced financial reports, e-commerce Shopify (SHOP), which had better-than-expected results for the fourth quarter but lower free cash flow profit for the first quarter, closed down 13.4%; biotech company Bojian (BIIB), whose revenue and profit fell more than expected in the fourth quarter, closed down 7.4%; the hotel chain Marriott International (MAR), whose fourth-quarter revenue and earnings guidance fell below expectations for the first quarter, closed down 5.6%; while fourth-quarter profit and revenue fell 10% at the beginning of the session and closed down by nearly 1.4%; while fourth-quarter profit expectations were higher than expectations, the first quarter profit forecast and the first index closed down by nearly 1.4%; while fourth-quarter profit expectations were higher than the profit expectations for the first quarter and closed down by nearly 1.4% Quotation A better-than-expected software and data service company ZoomInfo Technologies (ZI) closed up 14.4%; biotech company Bruker (BRKR), whose fourth-quarter revenue and full-year organic growth guidelines were better than expected, closed 8.8%; after announcing fourth-quarter profit and revenue higher than expectations and raising 2024 guidance, WK Kellogg (KLG), which was divested by breakfast cereal giant Kellogg (KLG) last year, closed up 8.1%; online car-hailing giant Lyft (LYFT), which closed down more than 2%, announced fourth quarter EPS and profit The quarterly order value guideline was higher than expected. After the market, the stock price jumped. After the market, the increase was over 60%, and then quickly narrowed to less than 20%.
Among other volatile individual stocks, many cryptocurrency concept stocks led by Bitcoin fell sharply on Monday. MicroStrategy (MSTR), Marathon Digital (MARA), and Coinbase (COIN) fell nearly 9%, 11.7%, and 7% respectively in early trading, closing down 4.4%, 5.7%, and 4.7%, respectively; however, after setting up a special committee to evaluate possible “potential deal” proposals, TripAdvisor (TRIP) closed up 13.8%.
In terms of European stocks, the pan-European stock index fell sharply. On Monday, the European Stoxx 600 Index, which closed at a new high since January 6, 2022, fell nearly 1%, the biggest closing drop since January 17, and a new closing low since January 25. Stock indexes of major European countries fell sharply. The Italian stock index fell about 1% for three consecutive days, leading the decline. German, French, English, and Spanish stocks, which rebounded on Monday, retreated, and German stocks fell from the historical closing level set on Monday.
Among the various sectors, the technology sector, which rose for 8 consecutive days to 23 years on Monday, closed down 2.7%. After German chip equipment supplier Siltronic announced a 16% drop in sales in 2023, and Siltronic closed down 4.1%. Among the constituent stocks in the technology sector, German-listed Infineon fell nearly 5%, Europe's highest market-capitalized chip stock, and ASML, which is listed in the Netherlands, closed down nearly 3.1%, ending an eight-day streak of record highs; the interest-sensitive real estate sector fell 2.4% from December 1 It has been low for more than two months since then.
Among other individual stocks, Novo & Nord, Europe's highest market capitalization pharmaceutical company listed in Denmark, fell nearly 0.5% in the intraday period, then turned up and closed up 0.2%. After falling back on Monday, it broke the record closing high created by last Friday's rebound.
US bond yields rose after CPI, ten-year yields hit a new high in February, and two-year yields rose nearly 20 basis points
US CPI data also dampened investors' confidence that the ECB and the Bank of England cut interest rates. Prices of European treasury bonds have all declined, and yields have followed the intraday rise in US bonds.
By the end of the bond market, the yield on the UK 10-year benchmark treasury bond closed at 4.14%, rising about 9 basis points during the day. After the US CPI was announced, it was close to 4.17%, breaking the high level since December 4, 2023; the 2-year UK bond yield closed 4.65%, rising by about 13 basis points during the day; the US CPI quickly reached 4.70% after the announcement, then rose above 4.71%, breaking the high level since the end of November 2023; The yield on the benchmark 10-year German treasury bond closed at 2.39%, rising about 3 basis points during the day. The highest level since December 1, which was set last Friday; the 2-year German bond yield closed at 2.75%, rising about 7 basis points during the day. After the US CPI was announced, it rose above 2.78%, breaking the high level since December 1.
The yield on the US 10-year benchmark treasury bond fell below 4.13% before the US CPI was announced, falling more than 5 basis points during the day. After the announcement, it quickly rose below 4.30%. US stocks rose 4.30% in midday trading and 4.32% during the day, rising nearly 14 basis points during the day, breaking the high level since December 1, 2023. By the end of the bond market, it was about 4.31%, rising about 13 basis points during the day, after broadly leveling off on Monday.
The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, fell to a new low of 4.45% before the CPI was announced. After the announcement, it quickly rose above 4.60%, and US stocks rose above 4.66% in midday trading, breaking the high since the first day of the December 13 Federal Reserve interest rate meeting set last Friday. It was about 4.66% at the end of the bond market, and rose by nearly 19 basis points during the day.
After the CPI, the US dollar index jumped to a three-month high, and the yen fell below 150, Bitcoin fell 50,000 dollars, and once fell back 2,000 dollars
The ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the exchange rate of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies including the euro, fell below the daily low of 104.00 before the US CPI was announced, falling nearly 0.2% during the day. After the CPI was announced, it quickly rose to 104.00, and US stocks surged to 104.90 before the market, breaking the high since November 14, 2023 set last Monday, and rose nearly 0.7% during the day.
By the close of the US stock market on Tuesday, the US dollar index was above 104.80, up more than 0.6% during the day; the Bloomberg US Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the exchange rate of the US dollar against ten other currencies, rose more than 0.6%, at the same time high since November 16 last year, and the US dollar index both rose for two consecutive days.
Among non-US currencies, the yen fell below the 150.00 mark for the first time since November 2023. The US dollar rose above the US CPI. The US stock rose above 150.00 before the US CPI. The US stock market was close to 150.90, breaking the high level since November 2023, rising about 1% during the day. US stocks were above 150.80 at the close and rose nearly 1% during the day; EUR/USD rapidly declined after the US CPI was announced. The US stock market dropped 1.0700 before the US market, breaking the low level since November 2023, falling more than 0.6% during the day; GBP/USD against the US CPI After the announcement, it quickly fell below 1.2600. US stocks were close to 1.2570 in midday trading, falling more than 0.4% during the day, breaking the low since February 8, and not close to the low since December 23, which fell below 1.2520 last Monday.
The offshore renminbi (CNH) rose to a new high of 7.2116 against the US dollar in early trading. After the US CPI was announced, it quickly fell to 7.22. US stocks fell 7.23 in early trading for the first time since November 17, 2023, and fell to 7.2333 in midday trading, continuing to set a new low since November 17, and fell 207 points from the daily high. At 5:59 Beijing time on February 14, the offshore RMB was 7.2,314 yuan against the US dollar, down 162 points from the end of Monday's New York session, and returned to the decline after ending three consecutive declines on Monday.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell for the first time in the last 8 days. It rose above 50,300 US dollars in the European stock market on Tuesday, breaking the high level since December 2023 for 2 consecutive days. The decline accelerated after the US CPI was announced. US stocks had already fallen below 49,000 US dollars before the market, and US stocks fell below 48,400 US dollars at noon, down about 4% from the daily high. The US stock market closed above 49,600 US dollars and fell about 1% in the last 24 hours.
After the CPI, crude oil returned most of the gains, US oil seven times in a row, and US natural gas fell six times in a row
International crude oil futures basically maintained their upward trend after the initial rise in the Asian market. After the US CPI was announced, US WTI crude oil all dropped to 77.00 US dollars before the US market, US stocks fell below 77.00 US dollars in early trading, and Brent crude oil fell below $82.00 in the early trading session, taking back most of the gains during the day, and the increase expanded after early trading. At a new high in midday trading, US oil was close to $78.50, up about 2% during the day, while oil rose above $83.20 and up 1.5% during the day.
In the end, crude oil collectively closed higher. WTI crude oil futures closed up 1.23% in March, closing up for seven consecutive trading days since February 5, and continued to be the longest consecutive day of gains since September 6, 2023, at $77.87 per barrel, with a cumulative increase of about 7.8% over seven trading days. Brent crude oil futures for April, which stopped falling slightly on Monday, closed up about 0.94% to 82.77 US dollars/barrel, and US oil both hit closing highs since January 26.
US gasoline and natural gas futures continued to have mixed ups and downs. NYMEX's March gasoline futures closed up nearly 1.2% to $2.3946/gallon; NYMEX March natural gas futures closed down nearly 4.47% to 1.689 US dollars/million British thermal units, falling for six consecutive days, making the longest continuous decline since eight consecutive declines on October 20, 2023. They hit a new closing low since July 2020 for two consecutive days, and hit a new low for at least three years since September 2020.
Renxi rose six times, lead fell five times in a row, and after CPI, gold was once higher and fell more than 2%. Spot gold fell below $2,000 for the first time in two months
London basic metals futures had mixed ups and downs on Tuesday. Lunnickel, which led the rise, rose more than 1%, rising for two consecutive weeks until the end of January. Renxi rose 1%, rising for six consecutive trading days, hitting a record high for half a year since August last year for two consecutive days. Luntong continues to break out of the nearly three-month low set last Friday.
Meanwhile, lead fell more than 1%, falling five times in a row, and closed below the $2,000 mark, hitting a new low since November 2022. Lunzinc, which stopped three consecutive declines on Monday, retreated slightly and began to approach the five-month low set last Friday. Lunlu also retreated and began falling to a two-week low set last Monday.
New York gold futures reached a new daily high of 2047.3 US dollars before the US CPI was announced, rising more than 0.7% during the day. After the CPI was announced, it quickly fell below 2030 US dollars, leveling off the gains and turning down. In early trading, US stocks were as low as 2002.8 US dollars, falling nearly 1.5% during the day, down nearly 2.2% from the daily high.
In the end, COMEX gold futures closed down 1.27% in April, the biggest closing drop since January 3, at 2007.2 US dollars/ounce, falling for four consecutive trading days, breaking the closing low since January 17.
Spot gold was close to 2,033 US dollars before the US CPI was announced, rising more than 0.6% during the day. After the CPI was announced, it quickly fell below the 2020 US dollar mark. At the beginning of the session, the US stock fell below the $2,000 mark for the first time since December 13. It continued to hit the low level since December 13, falling nearly 1.5% during the day, down nearly 2.1% from the daily high. US stocks closed slightly higher than 1992 dollars and fell more than 1% during the day.
edit/emily
