With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 37.2x ChengDu Hi-Tech Development Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000628) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios under 26x and even P/E's lower than 16x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
Recent times have been quite advantageous for ChengDu Hi-Tech Development as its earnings have been rising very briskly. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
How Is ChengDu Hi-Tech Development's Growth Trending?
ChengDu Hi-Tech Development's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 186%. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 106% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 41% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.
With this information, we find it concerning that ChengDu Hi-Tech Development is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.
The Final Word
While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
Our examination of ChengDu Hi-Tech Development revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
Before you take the next step, you should know about the 3 warning signs for ChengDu Hi-Tech Development that we have uncovered.
You might be able to find a better investment than ChengDu Hi-Tech Development. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.