Despite an already strong run, Tianli International Holdings Limited (HKG:1773) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 29% in the last thirty days. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 42% in the last year.
Since its price has surged higher, Tianli International Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 22.6x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 8x and even P/E's below 4x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
Recent times have been quite advantageous for Tianli International Holdings as its earnings have been rising very briskly. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Is There Enough Growth For Tianli International Holdings?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Tianli International Holdings' to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 247% last year. Still, incredibly EPS has fallen 9.2% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 23% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.
In light of this, it's alarming that Tianli International Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Final Word
The strong share price surge has got Tianli International Holdings' P/E rushing to great heights as well. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
Our examination of Tianli International Holdings revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
You need to take note of risks, for example - Tianli International Holdings has 2 warning signs (and 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) we think you should know about.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Tianli International Holdings, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
