Estimating The Fair Value Of Sportradar Group AG (NASDAQ:SRAD)
Estimating The Fair Value Of Sportradar Group AG (NASDAQ:SRAD)
Key Insights
關鍵見解
- The projected fair value for Sportradar Group is US$11.63 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Sportradar Group's US$10.22 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
- Analyst price target for SRAD is €13.60, which is 17% above our fair value estimate
- 根據兩階段的股本自由現金流,Sportradar集團的預計公允價值爲11.63美元
- Sportradar集團10.22美元的股價表明其交易價格與其公允價值估計相似
- 分析師對SRAD的目標股價爲13.60歐元,比我們的公允價值估計高出17%
How far off is Sportradar Group AG (NASDAQ:SRAD) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
Sportradar Group AG(納斯達克股票代碼:SRAD)距離其內在價值有多遠?使用最新的財務數據,我們將通過採用預期的未來現金流並將其折現爲今天的價值,來研究股票的定價是否合理。實現這一目標的一種方法是使用折扣現金流(DCF)模型。在你認爲自己無法理解之前,請繼續閱讀!實際上,它沒有你想象的那麼複雜。
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
我們要提醒的是,對公司進行估值的方法有很多,就像DCF一樣,每種技術在某些情況下都有優點和缺點。如果你對這種估值還有一些迫切的問題,可以看看 Simply Wall St 分析模型。
What's The Estimated Valuation?
估計估值是多少?
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我們將使用兩階段的DCF模型,顧名思義,該模型考慮了兩個增長階段。第一階段通常是較高的增長期,在第二個 “穩步增長” 時期逐漸趨於平穩,最終值是第二個 “穩定增長” 時期。首先,我們需要估計未來十年的現金流。在可能的情況下,我們會使用分析師的估計值,但是當這些估計值不可用時,我們會從最新的估計值或報告的價值中推斷出之前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩其萎縮速度,而自由現金流不斷增長的公司在此期間的增長率將放緩。我們這樣做是爲了反映早期增長的放緩幅度往往比後來的幾年更大。
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
通常,我們假設今天的一美元比未來一美元更有價值,因此這些未來現金流的總和將折現爲今天的價值:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
10 年自由現金流 (FCF) 預測
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF (€, Millions) | €123.2m | €139.6m | €151.8m | €162.1m | €170.9m | €178.6m | €185.5m | €191.7m | €197.6m | €203.1m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x4 | Analyst x3 | Est @ 8.73% | Est @ 6.80% | Est @ 5.45% | Est @ 4.50% | Est @ 3.84% | Est @ 3.37% | Est @ 3.05% | Est @ 2.82% |
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 7.3% | €115 | €121 | €123 | €122 | €120 | €117 | €113 | €109 | €105 | €101 |
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF(歐元,百萬) | 1.232 億歐元 | 1.396 億歐元 | 1.518 億歐元 | 1.621 億歐元 | 1.709 億歐元 | 1.786 億歐元 | 1.855 億歐元 | 1.917億歐元 | 197.6 億歐元 | 2.031 億歐元 |
增長率估算來源 | 分析師 x4 | 分析師 x3 | 美國東部標準時間 @ 8.73% | 美國東部標準時間 @ 6.80% | Est @ 5.45% | 美國東部時間 @ 4.50% | Est @ 3.84% | Est @ 3.37% | Est @ 3.05% | Est @ 2.82% |
現值(歐元,百萬歐元)折扣 @ 7.3% | 115 歐元 | 121 歐元 | 123 歐元 | 122 歐元 | 120 歐元 | 117 歐元 | 113 歐元 | 109 歐元 | 105 歐元 | 101 歐元 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €1.1b
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估計的FCF增長率)
10 年期現金流 (PVCF) 的現值 = 11 億歐元
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.3%.
我們現在需要計算終值,該值涵蓋了這十年之後的所有未來現金流。戈登增長公式用於計算終值,其未來年增長率等於10年期國債收益率2.3%的5年平均水平。我們將終端現金流折現爲今天的價值,權益成本爲7.3%。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €203m× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (7.3%– 2.3%) = €4.2b
終端價值 (TV) = FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = 2.03 億歐元× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (7.3% — 2.3%) = 42億歐元
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €4.2b÷ ( 1 + 7.3%)10= €2.1b
終端價值的現值 (PVTV) = 電視/ (1 + r)10= 42億歐元÷ (1 + 7.3%)10= 21億歐元
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is €3.2b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$10.2, the company appears about fair value at a 12% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
總價值是未來十年的現金流總額加上貼現的終端價值,由此得出總權益價值,在本例中爲32億歐元。爲了得出每股內在價值,我們將其除以已發行股票總數。相對於目前的10.2美元的股價,該公司的公允價值似乎比目前的股價折扣了12%。但請記住,這只是一個近似的估值,就像任何複雜的公式一樣,垃圾進出。
![dcf](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240217/0-906632795efe3efc8157c3bedf6a7d50-0-51f66aa91da79269d2693396c7d6c7bd.png/big)
The Assumptions
假設
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Sportradar Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.085. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
現在,貼現現金流的最重要輸入是貼現率,當然還有實際現金流。投資的一部分是自己對公司未來業績的評估,因此請自己嘗試計算並檢查自己的假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮公司未來的資本需求,因此它沒有全面反映公司的潛在表現。鑑於我們將Sportradar集團視爲潛在股東,因此使用股本成本作爲貼現率,而不是構成債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在此計算中,我們使用了7.3%,這是基於1.085的槓桿測試版。Beta是衡量股票與整個市場相比波動性的指標。我們的測試版來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔值,設定在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定的業務的合理範圍。
Moving On:
繼續前進:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Sportradar Group, we've compiled three further elements you should look at:
儘管公司的估值很重要,但理想情況下,它不會是你仔細檢查公司的唯一分析內容。使用DCF模型不可能獲得萬無一失的估值。相反,它應該被視爲 “需要哪些假設才能低估/高估這隻股票的價值?” 的指南如果一家公司以不同的速度增長,或者其股本成本或無風險利率急劇變化,則產出可能會大不相同。對於Sportradar集團,我們還整理了另外三個你應該考慮的元素:
- Financial Health: Does SRAD have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does SRAD's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
- 財務健康:SRAD的資產負債表健康嗎?看看我們的免費資產負債表分析,其中包含對槓桿和風險等關鍵因素的六項簡單檢查。
- 未來收益:與同行和整個市場相比,SRAD的增長率如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,深入了解未來幾年的分析師共識數字。
- 其他穩健的業務:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去表現是強大業務的基礎。爲什麼不瀏覽我們具有堅實業務基礎的股票互動清單,看看是否還有其他你可能沒有考慮過的公司!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS。Simply Wall St每天都會更新每隻美國股票的差價合約計算結果,因此,如果您想找到任何其他股票的內在價值,請在此處搜索。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。