Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 30% over the past week following Backblaze, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:BLZE) latest annual results. The results look positive overall; while revenues of US$102m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were 2.2% smaller than expected, with Backblaze losing US$1.63 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Backblaze are now predicting revenues of US$127.0m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 24% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 32% to US$1.02. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$123.9m and US$1.28 per share in losses. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a very promising decrease in loss per share in particular.
The consensus price target rose 17% to US$12.66, with the analysts encouraged by the higher revenue and lower forecast losses for next year. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Backblaze analyst has a price target of US$18.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$10.10. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 24% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 21% annual growth over the past three years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 10% annually. So although Backblaze is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Backblaze. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Backblaze analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Backblaze that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
