share_log

Changbai Mountain Tourism Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603099) Shares May Have Slumped 40% But Getting In Cheap Is Still Unlikely

長白山観光株式会社(SHSE:603099)の株価は40%下落したかもしれませんが、安く入ることはまだありません。

Simply Wall St ·  02/18 19:06

Changbai Mountain Tourism Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603099) shares have retraced a considerable 40% in the last month, reversing a fair amount of their solid recent performance. The good news is that in the last year, the stock has shone bright like a diamond, gaining 137%.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, Changbai Mountain Tourism may still be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 11.1x, since almost half of all companies in the Hospitality industry in China have P/S ratios under 5x and even P/S lower than 2x are not unusual. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SHSE:603099 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 19th 2024

What Does Changbai Mountain Tourism's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

With revenue growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Changbai Mountain Tourism has been doing relatively well. It seems that many are expecting the strong revenue performance to persist, which has raised the P/S. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Keen to find out how analysts think Changbai Mountain Tourism's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

Changbai Mountain Tourism's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 172% last year. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 195% overall rise in revenue, aided by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 26% during the coming year according to the four analysts following the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 38% growth, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

In light of this, it's alarming that Changbai Mountain Tourism's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What Does Changbai Mountain Tourism's P/S Mean For Investors?

Even after such a strong price drop, Changbai Mountain Tourism's P/S still exceeds the industry median significantly. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

It comes as a surprise to see Changbai Mountain Tourism trade at such a high P/S given the revenue forecasts look less than stellar. The weakness in the company's revenue estimate doesn't bode well for the elevated P/S, which could take a fall if the revenue sentiment doesn't improve. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Changbai Mountain Tourism you should know about.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

これらの内容は、情報提供及び投資家教育のためのものであり、いかなる個別株や投資方法を推奨するものではありません。 更に詳しい情報
    コメントする