Paycom Software, Inc. (NYSE:PAYC) came out with its annual results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Paycom Software reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$1.7b and statutory earnings per share of US$5.88, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Paycom Software from 21 analysts is for revenues of US$1.87b in 2024. If met, it would imply a decent 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 6.8% to US$5.62 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.87b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.62 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$203, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Paycom Software, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$260 and the most bearish at US$160 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Paycom Software's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 21% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.4% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Paycom Software is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$203, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Paycom Software. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Paycom Software analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Paycom Software that you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
先週、Paycom Software, Inc. (NYSE:PAYC) は年次決算を公表しました。当社は同社の業績がどのように推移し、この報告書に続き業界予測家たちが同社についてどのように考えているかを見てみたかったです。Paycom Softwareはアナリスト予想に合致して、17億ドルの売上高と1株あたり5.88ドルの法定収益を報告し、このビジネスが計画に沿って順調に推移していることを示しています。その結果、アナリストたちは収益モデルを更新し、同社の見通しに大きな変化があったのか、それとも普通のビジネスが続いているのか知る必要があります。そのため、我々は最新の法定予測を集め、アナリストたちが来年に何を予想しているのかを確認しました。
オーストラリアでは、moomooの投資商品及びサービスはMoomoo Securities Australia Limitedによって提供され、オーストラリア証券投資委員会(ASIC)の管理を受けております(AFSL No. 224663)。「金融サービスガイド」、「利用規約」、「プライバシーポリシー」などの詳細は、Moomoo Securities Australia Limitedのウェブサイトhttps://www.moomoo.com/auでご確認いただけます。
オーストラリアでは、moomooの投資商品及びサービスはMoomoo Securities Australia Limitedによって提供され、オーストラリア証券投資委員会(ASIC)の管理を受けております(AFSL No. 224663)。「金融サービスガイド」、「利用規約」、「プライバシーポリシー」などの詳細は、Moomoo Securities Australia Limitedのウェブサイトhttps://www.moomoo.com/auでご確認いただけます。