Strong Week for Angang Steel (HKG:347) Shareholders Doesn't Alleviate Pain of Five-year Loss
Strong Week for Angang Steel (HKG:347) Shareholders Doesn't Alleviate Pain of Five-year Loss
Statistically speaking, long term investing is a profitable endeavour. But that doesn't mean long term investors can avoid big losses. For example, after five long years the Angang Steel Company Limited (HKG:347) share price is a whole 71% lower. That is extremely sub-optimal, to say the least. And it's not just long term holders hurting, because the stock is down 49% in the last year. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 22% in the last 90 days.
从统计学上讲,长期投资是一项有利可图的举措。但这并不意味着长期投资者可以避免巨额损失。例如,在漫长的五年之后,鞍钢股份有限公司(HKG: 347)的股价下跌了整整71%。至少可以说,这非常不理想。而且,受伤害的不仅仅是长期持有者,因为该股去年下跌了49%。股东们最近的表现更加艰难,股价在过去90天中下跌了22%。
While the last five years has been tough for Angang Steel shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
尽管过去五年对鞍钢股东来说是艰难的,但过去一周显示出希望的迹象。因此,让我们来看看长期基本面,看看它们是否是负回报的驱动力。
Angang Steel isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.
鞍钢目前没有盈利,因此大多数分析师会着眼于收入的增长,以了解基础业务的增长速度。一般而言,没有利润的公司预计每年收入将增长,而且速度很快。一些公司愿意推迟盈利以更快地增加收入,但在这种情况下,人们确实预计收入会有良好的增长。
In the last half decade, Angang Steel saw its revenue increase by 5.5% per year. That's not a very high growth rate considering it doesn't make profits. It's not so sure that share price crash of 11% per year is completely deserved, but the market is doubtless disappointed. We'd be pretty cautious about this one, although the sell-off may be too severe. A company like this generally needs to produce profits before it can find favour with new investors.
在过去的五年中,鞍钢的收入每年增长5.5%。考虑到它没有盈利,这不是一个很高的增长率。目前尚不确定每年11%的股价暴跌是完全当之无愧的,但毫无疑问,市场感到失望。尽管抛售可能过于严重,但我们对这个问题会非常谨慎。像这样的公司通常需要先创造利润,然后才能获得新投资者的青睐。
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
公司的收入和收益(随着时间的推移)如下图所示(点击查看确切数字)。
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
可能值得注意的是,首席执行官的薪水低于类似规模公司的中位数。始终值得关注首席执行官的薪酬,但更重要的问题是公司多年来是否会增加收益。因此,我们建议您查看这份显示共识预测的免费报告
What About Dividends?
分红呢?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Angang Steel the TSR over the last 5 years was -66%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
重要的是要考虑任何给定股票的股东总回报率和股价回报率。基于股息再投资的假设,股东总回报率纳入了任何分拆或贴现资本筹集的价值以及任何股息。可以说,股东总回报率更全面地描述了股票产生的回报。我们注意到,鞍钢在过去5年的股东总回报率为-66%,好于上述股价回报率。而且,猜测股息支付在很大程度上解释了这种分歧是没有好处的!
A Different Perspective
不同的视角
We regret to report that Angang Steel shareholders are down 49% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 13%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 11% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. You might want to assess this data-rich visualization of its earnings, revenue and cash flow.
我们遗憾地报告,鞍钢股东今年下跌了49%(甚至包括股息)。不幸的是,这比整个市场13%的跌幅还要严重。但是,可能只是股价受到了更广泛的市场紧张情绪的影响。如果有很好的机会,可能值得关注基本面。遗憾的是,去年的业绩结束了糟糕的表现,股东在五年内每年面临11%的总亏损。我们意识到罗斯柴尔德男爵曾说过,投资者应该 “在街头流血时买入”,但我们警告说,投资者应首先确保他们购买的是高质量的企业。您可能需要评估其收益、收入和现金流的这种数据丰富的可视化效果。
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
如果你想看看另一家公司——一家财务状况可能优异的公司——那么千万不要错过这份已经证明自己可以增加收益的公司的免费名单。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。