Earnings Growth of 2.5% Over 3 Years Hasn't Been Enough to Translate Into Positive Returns for Zhejiang Supor (SZSE:002032) Shareholders
Earnings Growth of 2.5% Over 3 Years Hasn't Been Enough to Translate Into Positive Returns for Zhejiang Supor (SZSE:002032) Shareholders
No-one enjoys it when they lose money on a stock. But it's hard to avoid some disappointing investments when the overall market is down. The Zhejiang Supor Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002032) is down 30% over three years, but the total shareholder return is -20% once you include the dividend. That's better than the market which declined 28% over the last three years. And the share price decline continued over the last week, dropping some 6.7%.
当他们在股票上亏损时,没有人会喜欢它。但是,当整个市场下跌时,很难避免一些令人失望的投资。浙江苏泊尔股份有限公司(SZSE:002032)在三年内下跌了30%,但如果将股息包括在内,股东总回报率为-20%。这比过去三年下跌28%的市场要好。上周股价继续下跌,下跌了约6.7%。
Since Zhejiang Supor has shed CN¥3.1b from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
自从浙江苏泊尔在过去7天中贬值了31亿元人民币以来,让我们看看长期下跌是否是由该企业的经济推动的。
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
不可否认,市场有时是有效的,但价格并不总是能反映潜在的业务表现。通过比较每股收益(EPS)和一段时间内的股价变化,我们可以了解投资者对公司的态度是如何随着时间的推移而变化的。
During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Zhejiang Supor actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 7.5% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.
在不幸的三年股价下跌中,浙江苏泊尔的每股收益(EPS)实际上每年增长7.5%。鉴于股价的反应,人们可能会怀疑每股收益并不能很好地指导该期间的业务表现(可能是由于一次性的亏损或收益)。否则,该公司过去曾被过度炒作,因此其增长令人失望。
Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
由于每股收益的变化似乎与股价的变化无关,因此值得一看其他指标。
We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn't explain the share price drop. Zhejiang Supor has maintained its top line over three years, so we doubt that has shareholders worried. So it might be worth looking at how revenue growth over time, in greater detail.
我们注意到,股息似乎足够健康,因此这可能无法解释股价下跌的原因。浙江苏泊尔在三年内一直保持收入水平,因此我们怀疑这会引起股东的担忧。因此,可能值得更详细地研究收入在一段时间内的增长情况。
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
您可以在下图中看到收入和收入随时间推移而发生的变化(点击图表查看确切值)。
Zhejiang Supor is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. You can see what analysts are predicting for Zhejiang Supor in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
浙江苏泊尔为投资者所熟知,许多聪明的分析师都试图预测未来的利润水平。您可以在这张未来利润估计的交互式图表中看到分析师对浙江苏泊尔的预测。
What About Dividends?
分红呢?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Zhejiang Supor, it has a TSR of -20% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
重要的是要考虑任何给定股票的股东总回报率和股价回报率。股东总回报率是一种回报计算方法,它考虑了现金分红的价值(假设收到的任何股息都经过再投资)以及任何贴现资本筹集和分拆的计算价值。可以说,股东总回报率更全面地描述了股票产生的回报。就浙江苏泊尔而言,其在过去三年的股东回报率为-20%。这超过了我们之前提到的其股价回报率。而且,猜测股息支付在很大程度上解释了这种分歧是没有好处的!
A Different Perspective
不同的视角
It's nice to see that Zhejiang Supor shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 8.4% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 1.9% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Zhejiang Supor , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
很高兴看到浙江苏泊尔股东去年获得了 8.4% 的股东总回报率。当然,这包括股息。由于一年期股东总回报率好于五年期股东总回报率(后者为每年1.9%),因此该股的表现似乎在最近有所改善。持乐观态度的人可能会将最近股东总回报率的改善视为业务本身随着时间的推移而变得更好。尽管市场状况可能对股价产生的不同影响值得考虑,但还有其他因素更为重要。例如,投资风险的幽灵无处不在。我们已经向浙江苏泊尔确定了一个警告信号,了解它们应该是您投资过程的一部分。
We will like Zhejiang Supor better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
如果我们看到一些重大的内幕收购,我们会更喜欢浙江苏泊尔。在我们等待的同时,请查看这份免费清单,列出了最近有大量内幕收购的成长型公司。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在中国交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。