The recent earnings posted by Ubiquiti Inc. (NYSE:UI) were solid, but the stock didn't move as much as we expected. However the statutory profit number doesn't tell the whole story, and we have found some factors which might be of concern to shareholders.
A Closer Look At Ubiquiti's Earnings
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
Over the twelve months to December 2023, Ubiquiti recorded an accrual ratio of 0.57. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of US$16m despite its profit of US$372.1m, mentioned above. We saw that FCF was US$156m a year ago though, so Ubiquiti has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On Ubiquiti's Profit Performance
As we have made quite clear, we're a bit worried that Ubiquiti didn't back up the last year's profit with free cashflow. As a result, we think it may well be the case that Ubiquiti's underlying earnings power is lower than its statutory profit. But at least holders can take some solace from the 7.3% EPS growth in the last year. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. If you'd like to know more about Ubiquiti as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. For example, Ubiquiti has 4 warning signs (and 3 which are concerning) we think you should know about.
This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Ubiquiti's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
