Despite an already strong run, China Coal Energy Company Limited (HKG:1898) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 28% in the last thirty days. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 42%.
Although its price has surged higher, it's still not a stretch to say that China Coal Energy's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7.1x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Hong Kong, where the median P/E ratio is around 9x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for China Coal Energy as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. It might be that many expect the dismal earnings performance to revert back to market averages soon, which has kept the P/E from falling. You'd much rather the company wasn't bleeding earnings if you still believe in the business. Or at the very least, you'd be hoping it doesn't keep underperforming if your plan is to pick up some stock while it's not in favour.
How Is China Coal Energy's Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like China Coal Energy's to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 26% decrease to the company's bottom line. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 288% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 6.0% per annum as estimated by the ten analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 15% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive.
With this information, we find it interesting that China Coal Energy is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
The Key Takeaway
Its shares have lifted substantially and now China Coal Energy's P/E is also back up to the market median. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that China Coal Energy currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
You always need to take note of risks, for example - China Coal Energy has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on China Coal Energy, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
