Bearish: Analysts Just Cut Their NagaCorp Ltd. (HKG:3918) Revenue and EPS Estimates
Bearish: Analysts Just Cut Their NagaCorp Ltd. (HKG:3918) Revenue and EPS Estimates
The analysts covering NagaCorp Ltd. (HKG:3918) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting analysts have soured majorly on the business. Bidders are definitely seeing a different story, with the stock price of HK$3.37 reflecting a 12% rise in the past week. Whether the downgrade will have a negative impact on demand for shares is yet to be seen.
報道NagaCorp Ltd.(HKG: 3918)的分析師今天對今年的法定預測進行了重大修訂,從而向股東傳遞了一定負面情緒。收入和每股收益(EPS)的預測都出現了偏差,這表明分析師對該業務的表現主要不佳。競標者看到的肯定是另一回事,3.37港元的股價反映了過去一週的12%的漲幅。降級是否會對股票需求產生負面影響還有待觀察。
Following the downgrade, the most recent consensus for NagaCorp from its five analysts is for revenues of US$666m in 2024 which, if met, would be a major 33% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to jump 37% to US$0.055. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$775m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.068 in 2024. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about NagaCorp's prospects, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.
評級下調之後,其五位分析師對NagaCorp的最新共識是,2024年的收入爲6.66億美元,如果得以實現,其銷售額在過去12個月中將大幅增長33%。每股法定收益預計將增長37%,至0.055美元。在最新更新之前,分析師一直預測2024年的收入爲7.75億美元,每股收益(EPS)爲0.068美元。事實上,我們可以看出,分析師對NagaCorp的前景更加悲觀,他們管理收入預期大幅下降,並下調了每股收益預期。
The consensus price target fell 30% to US$0.51, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading analyst valuation estimates. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic NagaCorp analyst has a price target of US$0.72 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$0.38. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that the analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
共識目標股價下跌30%,至0.51美元,盈利前景疲軟顯然領先於分析師的估值預期。共識目標股價只是個別分析師目標的平均值,因此——可以很方便地看到基礎估計值的範圍有多廣。最樂觀的NagaCorp分析師將目標股價定爲每股0.72美元,而最悲觀的分析師則將其估值爲0.38美元。這是相當廣泛的估計,這表明分析師正在預測該業務的各種可能結果。
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that NagaCorp is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 33% annualised growth until the end of 2024. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 36% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 16% annually. Not only are NagaCorp's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.
現在從大局來看,我們理解這些預測的方法之一是了解它們與過去的業績和行業增長估計相比如何。從這些估計中可以看出一件事,那就是預計NagaCorp未來的增長速度將比過去更快,預計到2024年底,收入將實現33%的年化增長。如果實現,這將比過去五年中36%的年下降幅度好得多。相比之下,分析師對整個行業的估計表明,(總計)行業收入預計每年將增長16%。NagaCorp的收入不僅有望改善,而且分析師似乎也預計其增長速度將超過整個行業。
The Bottom Line
底線
The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. After such a stark change in sentiment from analysts, we'd understand if readers now felt a bit wary of NagaCorp.
要了解的最重要的一點是,分析師下調了每股收益預期,預計業務狀況將明顯下降。儘管分析師確實下調了收入預期,但這些預測仍然意味着收入表現將好於整個市場。在分析師的情緒發生瞭如此明顯的變化之後,我們可以理解讀者現在是否對NagaCorp有所警惕。
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for NagaCorp going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
即便如此,業務的長期發展軌跡對於股東的價值創造更爲重要。在Simply Wall St,我們有分析師對NagaCorp到2026年的全方位估計,你可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
當然,看到公司管理層將大量資金投資於股票與了解分析師是否在下調預期一樣有用。因此,您可能還希望搜索這份內部人士正在購買的免費股票清單。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。