Those holding AL Group Limited (HKG:8360) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 28% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 32% over that time.

Since its price has surged higher, you could be forgiven for thinking AL Group is a stock not worth researching with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 3.3x, considering almost half the companies in Hong Kong's Consumer Services industry have P/S ratios below 1.3x. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

What Does AL Group's Recent Performance Look Like?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at AL Group over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

AL Group's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 43%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 14% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 19% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's alarming that AL Group's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What Does AL Group's P/S Mean For Investors?

AL Group's P/S is on the rise since its shares have risen strongly. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We've established that AL Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 3 warning signs for AL Group (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that we have uncovered.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on AL Group, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.