It's shaping up to be a tough period for Vicor Corporation (NASDAQ:VICR), which a week ago released some disappointing yearly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$405m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 10%, coming in at just US$1.19 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
After the latest results, the consensus from Vicor's three analysts is for revenues of US$349.2m in 2024, which would reflect a definite 14% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 16% to US$1.40. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$439.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.45 in 2024. It looks like sentiment has fallen somewhat in the aftermath of these results, with a pretty serious reduction to revenue estimates and a small dip in earnings per share numbers as well.
It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 22% to US$54.00. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Vicor, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$68.00 and the most bearish at US$40.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 14% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 10% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.7% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Vicor's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Vicor. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Vicor analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
