As you might know, Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:KYMR) just kicked off its latest annual results with some very strong numbers. The overall earnings picture was okay, with revenues of US$79m beating expectations by 13%. Statutory losses were US$2.52 per share, only marginally better than what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 16 analysts covering Kymera Therapeutics is for revenues of US$50.5m in 2024. This implies a sizeable 36% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 39% to US$3.33 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$52.1m and losses of US$3.29 per share in 2024.
The analysts lifted their price target 9.7% to US$47.43per share, with reduced revenue estimates seemingly not expected to have a long-term impact on the intrinsic value of the business. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Kymera Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$112 and the most bearish at US$26.00 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 36% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 31% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 17% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Kymera Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Kymera Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Kymera Therapeutics (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
