Despite an already strong run, Arvinas, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARVN) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 28% in the last thirty days. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 54% in the last year.
Since its price has surged higher, Arvinas may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 20x, since almost half of all companies in the Pharmaceuticals industry in the United States have P/S ratios under 3.2x and even P/S lower than 0.6x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.
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What Does Arvinas' P/S Mean For Shareholders?
Recent times have been advantageous for Arvinas as its revenues have been rising faster than most other companies. It seems the market expects this form will continue into the future, hence the elevated P/S ratio. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Arvinas.What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Arvinas' to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 26% gain to the company's top line. This great performance means it was also able to deliver immense revenue growth over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have been over the moon with those medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 21% each year as estimated by the analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 46% each year growth forecast for the broader industry.
With this information, we find it concerning that Arvinas is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
What Does Arvinas' P/S Mean For Investors?
Shares in Arvinas have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
It comes as a surprise to see Arvinas trade at such a high P/S given the revenue forecasts look less than stellar. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Arvinas that you need to take into consideration.
Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.