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China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (HKG:81) Earnings and Shareholder Returns Have Been Trending Downwards for the Last Three Years, but the Stock Hikes 24% This Past Week

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 26 17:03

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited (HKG:81) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 24% in the last week. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. After all, the share price is down 48% in the last three years, significantly under-performing the market.

While the stock has risen 24% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the three years that the share price fell, China Overseas Grand Oceans Group's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 15% each year. This reduction in EPS is slower than the 20% annual reduction in the share price. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past. This increased caution is also evident in the rather low P/E ratio, which is sitting at 2.96.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
SEHK:81 Earnings Per Share Growth February 26th 2024

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of China Overseas Grand Oceans Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, China Overseas Grand Oceans Group's TSR for the last 3 years was -35%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that China Overseas Grand Oceans Group shareholders are down 28% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 7.5%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 1.3% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand China Overseas Grand Oceans Group better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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