We Think Keli Motor Group (SZSE:002892) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
We Think Keli Motor Group (SZSE:002892) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Keli Motor Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002892) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
禾倫·巴菲特曾說過一句名言:“波動性遠非風險的代名詞。”因此,當你評估公司的風險時,看來聰明的貨幣知道債務(通常涉及破產)是一個非常重要的因素。我們可以看到,科利汽車集團有限公司(深圳證券交易所:002892)確實在其業務中使用了債務。但更重要的問題是:這筆債務會帶來多大的風險?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
債務會帶來什麼風險?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
債務是幫助企業發展的工具,但是如果企業無法還清貸款人,那麼債務就任由他們擺佈。在最壞的情況下,如果公司無法向債權人付款,它可能會破產。但是,更常見(但仍然令人痛苦)的情況是它必須以低價籌集新的股權資本,從而永久稀釋股東。當然,債務可以成爲企業的重要工具,尤其是資本密集型企業。在考慮企業使用多少債務時,要做的第一件事是將現金和債務放在一起考慮。
What Is Keli Motor Group's Net Debt?
科利汽車集團的淨負債是多少?
As you can see below, at the end of September 2023, Keli Motor Group had CN¥167.5m of debt, up from CN¥79.0m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. But it also has CN¥575.8m in cash to offset that, meaning it has CN¥408.3m net cash.
如下所示,截至2023年9月底,科利汽車集團的債務爲1.675億元人民幣,高於去年同期的7,900萬元人民幣。點擊圖片查看更多細節。但它也有5.758億元的現金來抵消這一點,這意味着它的淨現金爲4.083億元人民幣。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240228/0-7a087f000ad64077d59e86a84d97bf9c-0-8e42c5386defd97c7346dccd8c244898.png/big)
How Strong Is Keli Motor Group's Balance Sheet?
科利汽車集團的資產負債表有多強?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Keli Motor Group had liabilities of CN¥390.4m due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥179.6m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥575.8m as well as receivables valued at CN¥395.3m due within 12 months. So it actually has CN¥401.2m more liquid assets than total liabilities.
根據上次報告的資產負債表,科利汽車集團的負債爲3.904億元人民幣,12個月後到期的負債爲1.796億元人民幣。除這些債務外,它有5.758億元的現金以及價值3.953億元人民幣的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。所以它實際上有4.012億元人民幣 更多 流動資產超過總負債。
This surplus suggests that Keli Motor Group has a conservative balance sheet, and could probably eliminate its debt without much difficulty. Succinctly put, Keli Motor Group boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
這種盈餘表明凱利汽車集團的資產負債表保守,可以毫不費力地消除債務。簡而言之,科利汽車集團擁有淨現金,因此可以公平地說,它沒有沉重的債務負擔!
The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Keli Motor Group if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 39% cut to EBIT over the last year. When a company sees its earnings tank, it can sometimes find its relationships with its lenders turn sour. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Keli Motor Group's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
如果管理層無法阻止去年削減39%的息稅前利潤,那麼適度的債務負擔對凱利汽車集團來說可能變得至關重要。當一家公司看到盈利下降時,它有時會發現與貸款機構的關係惡化。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,影響未來資產負債表狀況的是凱利汽車集團的收益。因此,如果你想進一步了解其收益,可能值得看看這張長期收益趨勢圖。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. Keli Motor Group may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. During the last three years, Keli Motor Group burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
最後,儘管稅務人員可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冷硬現金。凱利汽車集團的資產負債表上可能有淨現金,但研究該企業如何將其利息稅前收益(EBIT)轉換爲自由現金流仍然很有趣,因爲這將影響其對債務的需求和管理能力。在過去的三年中,科利汽車集團燒燬了大量現金。儘管投資者無疑預計這種情況將在適當的時候逆轉,但這顯然意味着其使用債務的風險更大。
Summing Up
總結
While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Keli Motor Group has CN¥408.3m in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. So while Keli Motor Group does not have a great balance sheet, it's certainly not too bad. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Keli Motor Group .
儘管調查公司的債務總是明智的,但在本案中,凱利汽車集團的淨現金爲4.083億元人民幣,資產負債表看起來不錯。因此,儘管凱利汽車集團的資產負債表不佳,但肯定還不錯。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。爲此,你應該注意我們在凱利汽車集團發現的兩個警告信號。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
畢竟,如果你對一家資產負債表堅如磐石的快速成長型公司更感興趣,那麼請立即查看我們的淨現金增長股票清單。
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