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Is Hunan Kylinsec Technology (SHSE:688152) A Risky Investment?

Is Hunan Kylinsec Technology (SHSE:688152) A Risky Investment?

湖南麒麟科技(上海證券交易所股票代碼:688152)是一項風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  02/27 18:52

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Hunan Kylinsec Technology Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688152) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

傳奇基金經理李露(由查理·芒格支持)曾經說過:“最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。”因此,很明顯,當你考慮任何給定股票的風險時,你需要考慮債務,因爲過多的債務會使公司陷入困境。與許多其他公司一樣,湖南麒麟安全科技股份有限公司(上海證券交易所代碼:688152)也使用債務。但是,股東是否應該擔心其債務的使用?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

爲什麼債務會帶來風險?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

一般而言,只有當公司無法通過籌集資金或用自己的現金流輕鬆還清債務時,債務才會成爲真正的問題。如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸款人可以控制業務。但是,更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司爲了控制債務,必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東。話雖如此,最常見的情況是公司合理地管理債務,而且對自己有利。當我們檢查債務水平時,我們首先要同時考慮現金和債務水平。

How Much Debt Does Hunan Kylinsec Technology Carry?

湖南麒麟科技揹負了多少債務?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2023 Hunan Kylinsec Technology had debt of CN¥32.9m, up from none in one year. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥809.5m in cash, so it actually has CN¥776.6m net cash.

您可以點擊下圖查看更多細節,該圖片顯示,截至2023年9月,湖南麒麟科技的債務爲3,290萬元人民幣,高於一年內的零債務。但是,其資產負債表顯示其持有8.095億元的現金,因此實際上擁有7.766億元的淨現金。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SHSE:688152 Debt to Equity History February 27th 2024
SHSE: 688152 2024 年 2 月 27 日債務與股權比率歷史記錄

How Strong Is Hunan Kylinsec Technology's Balance Sheet?

湖南麒麟科技的資產負債表有多強?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Hunan Kylinsec Technology had liabilities of CN¥126.7m falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥29.4m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥809.5m as well as receivables valued at CN¥334.2m due within 12 months. So it can boast CN¥987.6m more liquid assets than total liabilities.

我們可以從最新的資產負債表中看出,湖南麒麟科技的負債爲1.267億元人民幣,一年後到期的負債爲2940萬元人民幣。除了這些債務外,它還有8.095億元的現金以及價值3.342億元人民幣的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,它擁有的流動資產可以多出9.876億元人民幣 負債。

It's good to see that Hunan Kylinsec Technology has plenty of liquidity on its balance sheet, suggesting conservative management of liabilities. Given it has easily adequate short term liquidity, we don't think it will have any issues with its lenders. Simply put, the fact that Hunan Kylinsec Technology has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Hunan Kylinsec Technology can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

很高興看到湖南凱林證券科技的資產負債表上有充足的流動性,這表明對負債的管理比較保守。鑑於它很容易擁有足夠的短期流動性,我們認爲其貸款機構不會有任何問題。簡而言之,湖南麒麟科技的現金多於債務,這一事實可以說是一個很好的跡象,表明它可以安全地管理債務。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但最終,該業務未來的盈利能力將決定湖南麒麟安全科技能否隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。因此,如果您專注於未來,可以查看這份顯示分析師利潤預測的免費報告。

Over 12 months, Hunan Kylinsec Technology made a loss at the EBIT level, and saw its revenue drop to CN¥170m, which is a fall of 58%. To be frank that doesn't bode well.

在過去的12個月中,湖南麒麟科技在息稅前利潤水平上出現虧損,收入下降至1.7億元人民幣,下降了58%。坦率地說,這並不是一個好兆頭。

So How Risky Is Hunan Kylinsec Technology?

那麼湖南麒麟科技的風險有多大呢?

We have no doubt that loss making companies are, in general, riskier than profitable ones. And the fact is that over the last twelve months Hunan Kylinsec Technology lost money at the earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) line. And over the same period it saw negative free cash outflow of CN¥57m and booked a CN¥30m accounting loss. With only CN¥776.6m on the balance sheet, it would appear that its going to need to raise capital again soon. Overall, its balance sheet doesn't seem overly risky, at the moment, but we're always cautious until we see the positive free cash flow. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Hunan Kylinsec Technology that you should be aware of before investing here.

我們毫不懷疑,總的來說,虧損公司比盈利的公司風險更大。事實是,在過去的十二個月中,湖南Kylinsec Technology的息稅前收益(EBIT)額度出現了虧損。同期,它的自由現金流出爲負5700萬元人民幣,出現了3000萬元人民幣的會計虧損。由於資產負債表上只有7.766億元人民幣,看來它需要很快再次籌集資金。總體而言,其資產負債表目前似乎風險不大,但在看到正自由現金流之前,我們始終保持謹慎。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但歸根結底,每家公司都可以控制資產負債表之外存在的風險。例如,我們發現了湖南麒麟安全科技的1個警告信號,在這裏投資之前,你應該注意這個信號。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果你有興趣投資能夠在沒有債務負擔的情況下增加利潤的企業,請查看這份資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業的免費清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

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