Investors in Dillard's, Inc. (NYSE:DDS) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.4% to close at US$436 following the release of its full-year results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$6.9b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Dillard's surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$44.73 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from three analysts covering Dillard's is for revenues of US$6.43b in 2025. This implies a measurable 6.5% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 32% to US$30.92 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$6.58b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$28.19 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that while sentiment around revenues has declined following the latest results, the analysts are now more bullish on the company's earnings power.
The average price target rose 24% to US$311, with the analysts signalling that the improved earnings outlook is the key driver of value for shareholders - enough to offset the reduction in revenue estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Dillard's, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$450 and the most bearish at US$190 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 6.5% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 3.7% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 11% per year. It's pretty clear that Dillard's' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Dillard's following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Dillard's analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Dillard's , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.