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There's Reason For Concern Over YGM Trading Limited's (HKG:375) Massive 26% Price Jump

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 29 16:45

YGM Trading Limited (HKG:375) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 26% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Notwithstanding the latest gain, the annual share price return of 7.1% isn't as impressive.

Although its price has surged higher, it's still not a stretch to say that YGM Trading's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.9x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Luxury industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.6x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:375 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 29th 2024

How YGM Trading Has Been Performing

Revenue has risen firmly for YGM Trading recently, which is pleasing to see. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think this respectable revenue growth might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for YGM Trading, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like YGM Trading's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 19% gain to the company's top line. The latest three year period has also seen a 6.4% overall rise in revenue, aided extensively by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been respectable for the company.

Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 12% shows it's noticeably less attractive.

In light of this, it's curious that YGM Trading's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On YGM Trading's P/S

YGM Trading's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of YGM Trading revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't resulting in a lower P/S as per our expectations, given they look worse than current industry outlook. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless there is a significant improvement in the company's medium-term performance, it will be difficult to prevent the P/S ratio from declining to a more reasonable level.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 4 warning signs for YGM Trading (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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