One of the biggest stories of last week was how Eventbrite, Inc. (NYSE:EB) shares plunged 31% in the week since its latest full-year results, closing yesterday at US$5.60. The results look positive overall; while revenues of US$326m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were 7.6% smaller than expected, with Eventbrite losing US$0.26 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Eventbrite from seven analysts is for revenues of US$375.1m in 2024. If met, it would imply a solid 15% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 34% to US$0.17. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$399.5m and losses of US$0.053 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Eventbrite after this update; revenues were downgraded and per-share losses expected to increase.
The consensus price target fell 20% to US$10.14, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Eventbrite at US$13.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$7.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. For example, we noticed that Eventbrite's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 15% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 0.3% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 7.8% annually. Not only are Eventbrite's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Eventbrite. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Eventbrite analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Eventbrite is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
