Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBRL) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.7% to US$66.13 in the week after its latest quarterly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$935m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.19 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Following the latest results, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$3.51b in 2024. This would be a reasonable 2.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 3.8% to US$3.61 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.49b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.82 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
The consensus price target held steady at US$73.25, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Cracker Barrel Old Country Store analyst has a price target of US$90.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$61.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 4.6% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 4.1% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 9.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Cracker Barrel Old Country Store. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (1 is significant!) that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
