Axonics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXNX) last week reported its latest full-year results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues of US$366m arrived in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.12, an impressive 41% smaller than what broker models predicted. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Axonics' twelve analysts is for revenues of US$446.4m in 2024. This reflects a sizeable 22% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Axonics forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.40 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$442.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.39 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$71.80, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Axonics analyst has a price target of US$75.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$71.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Axonics' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 22% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 52% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.8% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Axonics is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$71.80, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Axonics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Axonics Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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