It's been a good week for Mango Excellent Media Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300413) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 6.1% to CN¥25.63. Mango Excellent Media beat revenue expectations by 2.0%, at CN¥15b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at CN¥1.90, some 2.5% short of analyst estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
After the latest results, the 20 analysts covering Mango Excellent Media are now predicting revenues of CN¥16.2b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a decent 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 31% to CN¥1.32 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥16.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.35 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
The consensus price target held steady at CN¥32.68, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Mango Excellent Media at CN¥42.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥23.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Mango Excellent Media's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.2% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 18% annually. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Mango Excellent Media is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Mango Excellent Media analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Mango Excellent Media that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
