Editas Medicine, Inc. (NASDAQ:EDIT) just released its latest annual results and things are looking bullish. Results clearly exceeded expectations, with a substantial revenue beat leading to smaller losses in what looks like a definite win for investors. Revenues were US$78m and the statutory loss per share was US$2.02, smaller than the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 17 analysts covering Editas Medicine is for revenues of US$31.2m in 2024. This implies a concerning 60% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 29% to US$2.48 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$23.0m and losses of US$2.41 per share in 2024. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts lifting this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share numbers to reflect the cost of achieving this growth.
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$15.40, with growing revenues seemingly enough to offset the concern of growing losses. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Editas Medicine at US$27.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$7.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 60% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 0.4% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 17% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Editas Medicine is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Editas Medicine. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$15.40, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Editas Medicine going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Editas Medicine you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.