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Qingdao Copton Technology Company Limited (SHSE:603798) Stock Is Going Strong But Fundamentals Look Uncertain: What Lies Ahead ?

Qingdao Copton Technology Company Limited (SHSE:603798) Stock Is Going Strong But Fundamentals Look Uncertain: What Lies Ahead ?

青島科普頓科技股份有限公司(SHSE: 603798)股票走強,但基本面看起來不確定:未來會怎樣?
Simply Wall St ·  03/03 19:40

Most readers would already be aware that Qingdao Copton Technology's (SHSE:603798) stock increased significantly by 39% over the past week. However, we decided to pay attention to the company's fundamentals which don't appear to give a clear sign about the company's financial health. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Qingdao Copton Technology's ROE today.

大多數讀者已經意識到,青島科普頓科技(SHSE: 603798)的股票在過去一週大幅上漲了39%。但是,我們決定關注公司的基本面,這些基本面似乎並未給公司的財務狀況提供明確的信號。特別是,我們今天將關注青島康普頓科技的投資回報率。

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

股本回報率或投資回報率是股東需要考慮的重要因素,因爲它可以告訴他們資本再投資的有效性。換句話說,它揭示了公司成功地將股東投資轉化爲利潤。

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE 是如何計算的?

The formula for return on equity is:

股本回報率的公式是:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

股本回報率 = 淨利潤(來自持續經營業務)÷ 股東權益

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Qingdao Copton Technology is:

因此,根據上述公式,青島康普頓科技的投資回報率爲:

4.4% = CN¥51m ÷ CN¥1.2b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).

4.4% = 5100萬元人民幣 ÷ 12億元人民幣(基於截至2023年9月的過去十二個月)。

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every CN¥1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn CN¥0.04 in profit.

“回報” 是過去十二個月的稅後收入。另一種思考方式是,公司每擁有價值1元人民幣的股權,就能獲得0.04元的利潤。

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

爲什麼投資回報率對收益增長很重要?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company's earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

到目前爲止,我們已經了解到,投資回報率是衡量公司盈利能力的指標。然後,我們能夠評估公司的收益增長潛力,具體取決於公司對這些利潤進行再投資或 “保留” 了多少及其有效性。假設其他一切保持不變,那麼與不一定具有這些特徵的公司相比,投資回報率和利潤保留率越高,公司的增長率就越高。

Qingdao Copton Technology's Earnings Growth And 4.4% ROE

青島科普頓科技的收益增長和4.4%的投資回報率

It is quite clear that Qingdao Copton Technology's ROE is rather low. Not just that, even compared to the industry average of 7.0%, the company's ROE is entirely unremarkable. For this reason, Qingdao Copton Technology's five year net income decline of 9.5% is not surprising given its lower ROE. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For example, the business has allocated capital poorly, or that the company has a very high payout ratio.

很明顯,青島科普頓科技的投資回報率相當低。不僅如此,即使與7.0%的行業平均水平相比,該公司的投資回報率也完全不引人注目。出於這個原因,鑑於投資回報率較低,青島科普頓科技五年淨收入下降9.5%並不奇怪。但是,也可能有其他因素導致收益下降。例如,該企業的資本分配不佳,或者該公司的派息率非常高。

That being said, we compared Qingdao Copton Technology's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 12% in the same 5-year period.

話雖如此,我們將青島科普頓科技的表現與該行業的表現進行了比較,當我們發現儘管該公司縮減了收益,但該行業在同期5年內以12%的速度增長了收益時,我們對此感到擔憂。

past-earnings-growth
SHSE:603798 Past Earnings Growth March 4th 2024
SHSE: 603798 過去的收益增長 2024 年 3 月 4 日

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Is Qingdao Copton Technology fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

爲公司附加價值的基礎在很大程度上與其收益增長息息相關。無論如何,投資者應設法確定預期的收益增長或下降是否已計入其中。這樣做將幫助他們確定股票的未來是樂觀還是不祥的。與其他公司相比,青島康普頓科技的估值是否合理?這3種估值指標可能會幫助您做出決定。

Is Qingdao Copton Technology Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

青島科普頓科技是否有效地將其利潤再投資?

In spite of a normal three-year median payout ratio of 30% (that is, a retention ratio of 70%), the fact that Qingdao Copton Technology's earnings have shrunk is quite puzzling. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.

儘管正常的三年派息率中位數爲30%(即留存率爲70%),但青島科普頓科技的收益萎縮這一事實還是相當令人費解的。因此,在這方面可能還有其他解釋。例如,該公司的業務可能正在惡化。

In addition, Qingdao Copton Technology has been paying dividends over a period of seven years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is preferred by the management even though earnings have been in decline.

此外,青島科普頓科技已經派發了七年的股息,這表明儘管收益有所下降,但管理層仍傾向於繼續支付股息。

Conclusion

結論

Overall, we have mixed feelings about Qingdao Copton Technology. While the company does have a high rate of reinvestment, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping any benefit to its investors, and moreover, its having a negative impact on the earnings growth. Wrapping up, we would proceed with caution with this company and one way of doing that would be to look at the risk profile of the business. Our risks dashboard would have the 2 risks we have identified for Qingdao Copton Technology.

總的來說,我們對青島科普頓科技有喜憂參半的感覺。儘管該公司的再投資率確實很高,但低投資回報率意味着所有這些再投資都沒有給投資者帶來任何好處,而且還對收益增長產生了負面影響。總而言之,我們將謹慎對待這家公司,其中一種方法是研究該業務的風險狀況。我們的風險儀表板將包含我們爲青島康普頓科技確定的兩種風險。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

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