XGD Inc. (SZSE:300130) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 28% after a shaky period beforehand. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 44%.
After such a large jump in price, XGD's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 43x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 30x and even P/E's below 18x are quite common. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
XGD has been struggling lately as its earnings have declined faster than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will turn things around completely and accelerate past most others in the market. If not, then existing shareholders may be very nervous about the viability of the share price.
Is There Enough Growth For XGD?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as XGD's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 21%. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 155% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been more than adequate for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the three analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 210% over the next year. With the market only predicted to deliver 42%, the company is positioned for a stronger earnings result.
With this information, we can see why XGD is trading at such a high P/E compared to the market. Apparently shareholders aren't keen to offload something that is potentially eyeing a more prosperous future.
The Key Takeaway
XGD's P/E is getting right up there since its shares have risen strongly. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that XGD maintains its high P/E on the strength of its forecast growth being higher than the wider market, as expected. Right now shareholders are comfortable with the P/E as they are quite confident future earnings aren't under threat. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for XGD that you need to take into consideration.
You might be able to find a better investment than XGD. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.