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What to Expect on Super Tuesday

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Bloomberg Mar 5 01:51 · 22.1k Views

Donald Trump has a sizeable lead over rival Nikki Haley in the race to secure the Republican presidential nomination. Bloomberg Contributors Rick Davis and Jeanne Sheehan Zaino discuss everything to expect on Super Tuesday.

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Transcript

  • 00:00 We're not going to have a presumptive nominee
  • 00:02 when it's done, Kaylee, but Donald Trump will likely be a long way down that road.
  • 00:06 And we want to
  • 00:07 assemble our panel for their Take This Day before.
  • 00:10 Rick Davis and Jeannie Shanzano, of course, are with us.
  • 00:12 Bloomberg Politics contributors in our signature panel here.
  • 00:16 On Balance of Power,
  • 00:17 Take us to school.
  • 00:18 Rick.
  • 00:18 Super Tuesday, what you'll actually be watching tomorrow night because a lot of people think they already know how this movie ends.
  • 00:25 Yeah, I think that there are some things I'm looking at vis A vis the Trump versus
  • 00:30 Haley contest.
  • 00:31 I think that
  • 00:32 you look at places like Vermont,
  • 00:35 Massachusetts as places she might be able to
  • 00:39 get into her sort of upper competitive level, like 40% of the vote,
  • 00:44 maybe California, even though it's a winner take all.
  • 00:47 Is she still getting that kind of vote
  • 00:49 potential out of
  • 00:51 moderates and and independence
  • 00:54 Most of these states have open primaries so she'll be able to contest the election same way she did in New Hampshire.
  • 01:02 So I think that that that's one aspect of it that I'm looking at and and two
  • 01:07 I think also
  • 01:08 just how much Republicans still care about this race.
  • 01:12 I mean what are going to be the levels of turn out because
  • 01:15 arguably this may be the last gasp of a competitive race and have people pretty much turn the page
  • 01:21 and decided they're not going to participate in what's basically a foregone conclusion.
  • 01:28 Well Jeannie, is it possible that actually the reverse happens where any anti Trump
  • 01:33 Republican or independently minded
  • 01:35 voter decides this is really the last chance to to get behind Nikki Haley to try to make sure he isn't the nominee and shows out in full force?
  • 01:43 Is there any indication a scenario like that could happen?
  • 01:47 Yeah, I mean, it's possible if if we believe the polls, it's probably unlikely.
  • 01:53 You know places I'm watching.
  • 01:55 Say Northern Virginia, for instance, if Nikki Haley has a shot anyway.
  • 02:00 Where it's going to be a place like Northern Virginia,
  • 02:03 you know,
  • 02:04 that's going to be those kinds of areas in which you see the more educated, more.
  • 02:10 Additional what Donald Trump described this weekend as the old Mitt Romney type of Republican.
  • 02:15 You know, does she do better in those kinds of places?
  • 02:18 And then of course as Rick.
  • 02:20 Just discussed turn out is going to be critical.
  • 02:22 We've seen, you know, fairly robust.
  • 02:25 Turn out, but you know, does that start to dissipate
  • 02:29 because people believe, for instance, that Donald Trump essentially has this wrapped up or to your point,
  • 02:35 do we see people out there casting
  • 02:37 protest votes, quote UN quote.
  • 02:39 And we do have a few states that are open primaries and then we have some states in which if you aren't affiliated, you can vote and decide which ballot you're going to be on.
  • 02:49 So be watching those as well.
  • 02:52 Rick, you're looking at March 19th, I think for Donald Trump
  • 02:56 to have this in the bag, mathematically speaking, as we head for 12:15, is that the date he'll shut it down?
  • 03:03 Yeah, I think so.
  • 03:04 That's the safe date.
  • 03:06 You know, he's,
  • 03:07 he's, he's got
  • 03:09 the ability to
  • 03:11 maybe, you know, do better by trying to get it done by March 12th,
  • 03:17 you know, but that's a real close call.
  • 03:19 He's got to win 90%
  • 03:21 of all the delegates on Super Tuesday
  • 03:24 to be even in the
  • 03:26 category of being able to lock up the nomination.
  • 03:29 When I say lock up,
  • 03:30 you know, that's, you know, 50 + 1 of the 2429 delegates that are eligible
  • 03:37 for the Republican convention.
  • 03:38 So
  • 03:40 I think
  • 03:41 it's so much as a foregone conclusion,
  • 03:43 But he likes to try and wrap it up early and frankly, March 19th is relatively early, but won't be the earliest that anybody's ever done it.