Generally speaking long term investing is the way to go. But unfortunately, some companies simply don't succeed. To wit, the Fortune Ng Fung Food (Hebei) Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600965) share price managed to fall 58% over five long years. That is extremely sub-optimal, to say the least. And it's not just long term holders hurting, because the stock is down 36% in the last year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 33% in the last three months.
If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Fortune Ng Fung Food (Hebei)Ltd isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the five years over which the share price declined, Fortune Ng Fung Food (Hebei)Ltd's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 9.5% each year. Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 16% per year, over the period. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. This free interactive report on Fortune Ng Fung Food (Hebei)Ltd's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Fortune Ng Fung Food (Hebei)Ltd, it has a TSR of -55% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 16% in the twelve months, Fortune Ng Fung Food (Hebei)Ltd shareholders did even worse, losing 36% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 9% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Fortune Ng Fung Food (Hebei)Ltd (at least 2 which are a bit concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.