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Improved Earnings Required Before Anhui Xinhua Media Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601801) Stock's 30% Jump Looks Justified

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 7 08:21

Anhui Xinhua Media Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601801) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 30% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 27% in the last year.

Even after such a large jump in price, Anhui Xinhua Media may still be sending bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16.9x, since almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios greater than 30x and even P/E's higher than 55x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/E.

Anhui Xinhua Media certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, possibly more than the market, which has repressed the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

pe-multiple-vs-industry
SHSE:601801 Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry March 7th 2024
Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Anhui Xinhua Media will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the market for P/E ratios like Anhui Xinhua Media's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 21% last year. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 43% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 29% as estimated by the three analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 41% growth forecast for the broader market.

With this information, we can see why Anhui Xinhua Media is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on while the company is potentially eyeing a less prosperous future.

The Key Takeaway

The latest share price surge wasn't enough to lift Anhui Xinhua Media's P/E close to the market median. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Anhui Xinhua Media maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast growth being lower than the wider market, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for Anhui Xinhua Media with six simple checks on some of these key factors.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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