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Jilin Quanyangquan Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:600189) Shares Climb 27% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 8 17:16

Those holding Jilin Quanyangquan Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600189) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 27% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 31% in the last year.

Since its price has surged higher, you could be forgiven for thinking Jilin Quanyangquan is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 4.8x, considering almost half the companies in China's Forestry industry have P/S ratios below 1.5x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SHSE:600189 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry March 8th 2024

How Jilin Quanyangquan Has Been Performing

Revenue has risen at a steady rate over the last year for Jilin Quanyangquan, which is generally not a bad outcome. Perhaps the market believes the recent revenue performance is strong enough to outperform the industry, which has inflated the P/S ratio. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Jilin Quanyangquan, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Jilin Quanyangquan's Revenue Growth Trending?

Jilin Quanyangquan's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 3.8% gain to the company's revenues. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen an unpleasant 1.9% overall drop in revenue. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 14% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Jilin Quanyangquan is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Jilin Quanyangquan's P/S?

Jilin Quanyangquan's P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Jilin Quanyangquan revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 3 warning signs for Jilin Quanyangquan (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you're unsure about the strength of Jilin Quanyangquan's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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