Those holding CITIC Niya Wine Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600084) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 26% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 18% in the last twelve months.

Following the firm bounce in price, when almost half of the companies in China's Beverage industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 5.3x, you may consider CITIC Niya Wine as a stock not worth researching with its 39x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

How Has CITIC Niya Wine Performed Recently?

For instance, CITIC Niya Wine's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

How Is CITIC Niya Wine's Revenue Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, CITIC Niya Wine would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 11% decrease to the company's top line. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year revenue growth is still a noteworthy 18% in total. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 18% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's alarming that CITIC Niya Wine's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On CITIC Niya Wine's P/S

CITIC Niya Wine's P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of CITIC Niya Wine revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't detracting from the P/S as much as we though, given they look worse than current industry expectations. When we observe slower-than-industry revenue growth alongside a high P/S ratio, we assume there to be a significant risk of the share price decreasing, which would result in a lower P/S ratio. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these the share price as being reasonable.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 1 warning sign for CITIC Niya Wine that you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of CITIC Niya Wine's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.