英伟达股价崩跌之际，有“木头姐”之称的方舟投资首席执行官兼首席投资官Cathie Wood在致股东的一封信中发表了引人注目的言论。After six consecutive trading days with a cumulative increase of more than 19%, Nvidia's stock price finally collapsed.
Overnight, Nvidia closed down 5.6%, the biggest decline since May 31, 2023. The market capitalization shrunk by about 130 billion US dollars in a single day, making it one of the biggest single-day market capitalization evaporation records in US stock history.
As Nvidia's stock price collapsed, Cathie Wood, CEO and chief investment officer of Ark Investment, known as “Sister Mu,” made a remarkable statement in a letter to shareholders.
She compared Nvidia to Cisco in the era of the internet bubble, saying that Nvidia's “Cisco moment” has arrived.
Wood recalled that in the three and a half years up to March 1994, Cisco's stock price soared 31 times, but due to concerns about the economic downturn and frequent competition caused customers to cut orders, Cisco's stock price fell 51% over the next 4 months.
At the peak of the Internet bubble in March 2000, Cisco's stock price rebounded 71 times, but after the bubble was bursting, Cisco's stock price plummeted by more than 90% over a few years, and has not been able to return to its peak since then.
Wood believes Nvidia will be the next Cisco.
However, Morgan Stanley does not agree with this view. In its latest report, it pointed out that from a valuation perspective, today's Nvidia is far different from Cisco back then.
Looking back at Cisco, the representative company during the Internet bubble in 2000, its revenue growth rate at the time reached 59%, while its forward-looking price-earnings ratio was as high as 138 times. In contrast, today Nvidia's price-earnings ratio is only 30 times, yet its revenue growth rate has reached 90%.
Therefore, we cannot assume that the present (Nvidia) is close to the peak of the market, either from a valuation perspective or from a long-term perspective.
Wood also warned that Nvidia's growth will slow this quarter.
On the one hand, chip delivery times have been shortened from as long as 11 months to 3 months, indicating that supply is catching up with demand. As more companies (like Tesla) start designing their own AI chips, Nvidia will face more intense competition from peers.
On the other hand, due to the shortage of AI chips, Tesla, Oracle and many other companies have been frantically snapping up Nvidia chips. This is the main reason why Nvidia has grown rapidly in recent quarters.
However, Wood believes that the crazy rush may mean that customers end up buying double or triple the number of chips they need, and then it is likely that they will clear inventory and cut orders. This will put pressure on demand for Nvidia chips.
