As you might know, THOR Industries, Inc. (NYSE:THO) last week released its latest second-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$2.2b revenue coming in 2.6% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.13 missed the mark badly, arriving some 80% below what was expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on THOR Industries after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, THOR Industries' twelve analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$10.2b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$5.17, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$10.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.67 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$108 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic THOR Industries analyst has a price target of US$141 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$87.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 3.1% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 12% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 13% per year. It's pretty clear that THOR Industries' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for THOR Industries. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$108, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for THOR Industries going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - THOR Industries has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
