The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that the current performance of various companies has bottomed out one after another, the removal of overseas inventory of demand-side photovoltaic inverters is coming to an end, and the penetration of silicon carbide is gradually accelerating. From a long-term perspective, localization has entered the deep-water zone, and companies that have made breakthroughs in multiple categories, vertical industrial chain layout, or horizontal global layout are expected to show competitive advantage. It is recommended to focus on Yangjie Technology (300373.SZ), Xinjie (605111.SH), Star Semiconductor (603290.SH), Era Electric (688187.SH), China Resources (), Silanwei (DAB), Dongwei Semiconductor (Shuang), Hongwei Technology (System), Jiejie Microelectronics (688396.SH 600460.SH 688261.SH 688711.SH 300623.SZ) and companies such as Tianyue Advanced (688234.SH) and Jingsheng Co., Ltd. (688478.SH) upstream of the silicon carbide industry chain.

Guoxin Securities's views are as follows:

New energy vehicles: In January 2024, the penetration rate of SiC modules for passenger cars in China was about 10.9%, and domestic production of main drive power modules accounted for about 69%.

Vehicle situation: According to data from the China Automobile Association, China sold 729,000 new energy vehicles per month in January (YoY +78.7%, MoM -38.8%), and sales of plug-in hybrid models increased 134.7% year on year.

Status of main drive power modules: According to NE era data, domestic production accounted for about 68.6% of domestic passenger car main drive power modules in January.

Silicon carbide penetration situation: According to NE era data, the penetration rate of silicon carbide modules driven by domestic insurance passenger car owners was about 10.9%, and the silicon carbide penetration rate in 800V models increased significantly in the second half of 2023: silicon carbide models accounted for 15%/18%/29%/35%/39%/45% in 800V models from June to December '23, accounting for 49% in January 2024. After December, many silicon carbide models such as M9 and Ideal MEGA were launched one after another.

Charging piles: In January 2024, the number of charging piles in China increased by 264,500 units (YoY +31.1%), of which the number of public charging piles increased by 561,000 units (YoY +36.76%, QoQ -43.92%), and the number of private charging piles built with vehicles increased by 208,400 units (YoY +29.62%, QoQ -10.14%).

PV inverters: Prices for PV inverters remained stable on February 20, 50, and 100 kW. With the end of the Spring Festival, demand for downstream purchase orders started one after another, demand for mainstream industrial and commercial power models recovered, and procurement expectations from overseas customers gradually improved, but it will still take time for inventory removal.

Power device delivery: According to TTI and Fuchang Electronics data, with the exception of some IGBT products, the delivery and price of most power device products have basically stabilized.

Investment advice: At present, the performance of various companies has bottomed out one after another, the elimination of overseas inventories of demand-side photovoltaic inverters is coming to an end, and the penetration of silicon carbide is gradually accelerating. On the supply side, traditional devices such as 2 and 3 transistors have experienced multiple quarterly adjustments, and product price declines have narrowed, and production line utilization rates have gradually improved as demand has increased; MOSFET price declines have gradually narrowed, and design companies' OEM costs have gradually been optimized, and it is expected that they will gradually improve over 24 years;

The demand and price of IGBT modules are adjusted in the same direction as the downstream machine competition pattern; silicon carbide gradually penetrates into medium- and low-price models and covers some hybrid and 400V models. As the application market gradually sinks, the increase in silicon carbide usage will help the cost of the industrial chain to drop further. In the short to medium term, the share and profitability of leading companies in the segment benefiting from price cuts and production expansion are expected to be restored in stages;

From a long-term perspective, localization has entered the deep-water zone, and companies with multi-category breakthroughs, vertical industrial chain layout, or horizontal global layout are expected to show competitive advantage. It is recommended to focus on Yangjie Technology (300373.SZ), Xinjie Energy (605111.SH), Star Semiconductor (603290.SH), Era Electric (688187.SH), China Resources (), Silanwei (DAB), Dongwei Semiconductor (Shuang), Hongwei Technology (System), Jiejie Microelectronics (688396.SH 600460.SH 688261.SH 688711.SH 300623.SZ) and companies such as Tianyue Advanced (688234.SH) and Jingsheng Co., Ltd. (688478.SH) upstream of the silicon carbide industry chain.