The analysts covering Foghorn Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:FHTX) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.
Following the downgrade, the most recent consensus for Foghorn Therapeutics from its five analysts is for revenues of US$35m in 2024 which, if met, would be an okay 3.3% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$4.04 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$41m and losses of US$2.43 per share in 2024. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Foghorn Therapeutics' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 80% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Foghorn Therapeutics is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. We wouldn't be surprised to find shareholders feeling a bit shell-shocked, after these downgrades. It looks like analysts have become a lot more bearish on Foghorn Therapeutics, and their negativity could be grounds for caution.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Foghorn Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
