Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG), might not be a large cap stock, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the NYSE over the last few months. The recent jump in the share price has meant that the company is trading at close to its 52-week high. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company's outlook is already priced into the stock. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Let's take a look at Harley-Davidson's outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.

Is Harley-Davidson Still Cheap?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to our valuation model. It's trading around 14% below our intrinsic value, which means if you buy Harley-Davidson today, you'd be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe the company's true value is $44.49, then there's not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Harley-Davidson's share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What does the future of Harley-Davidson look like?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it's the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. However, with a negative profit growth of -11% expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth certainly doesn't appear to be a driver for a buy decision for Harley-Davidson. This certainty tips the risk-return scale towards higher risk.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? Currently, HOG appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you've been keeping tabs on HOG for a while, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The stock appears to be trading at fair value, which means there's less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven't considered today, which can help gel your views on HOG should the price fluctuate below its true value.

So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Harley-Davidson at this point in time. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Harley-Davidson (2 can't be ignored) you should be familiar with.

If you are no longer interested in Harley-Davidson, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.