China Reinsurance (Group) Corporation (HKG:1508) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 25% share price jump in the last month. The bad news is that even after the stocks recovery in the last 30 days, shareholders are still underwater by about 5.5% over the last year.
In spite of the firm bounce in price, China Reinsurance (Group)'s price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 5.9x might still make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 9x and even P/E's above 18x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/E.
Recent times have been pleasing for China Reinsurance (Group) as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think the company's earnings are going to fall away like everyone else's soon. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?
China Reinsurance (Group)'s P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 42% gain to the company's bottom line. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen a very unpleasant 34% drop in EPS in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 20% per annum during the coming three years according to the dual analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 15% per year growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we find it odd that China Reinsurance (Group) is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Apparently some shareholders are doubtful of the forecasts and have been accepting significantly lower selling prices.
The Final Word
China Reinsurance (Group)'s stock might have been given a solid boost, but its P/E certainly hasn't reached any great heights. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
Our examination of China Reinsurance (Group)'s analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a strong earnings outlook with faster-than-market growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing significant pressure on the P/E ratio. At least price risks look to be very low, but investors seem to think future earnings could see a lot of volatility.
Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for China Reinsurance (Group) with six simple checks.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on China Reinsurance (Group), explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
