Hengdian Group Tospo Lighting Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:603303) recent earnings report didn't offer any surprises, with the shares unchanged over the last week. We did some analysis to find out why and believe that investors might be missing some encouraging factors contained in the earnings.
Examining Cashflow Against Hengdian Group Tospo Lighting's Earnings
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
Hengdian Group Tospo Lighting has an accrual ratio of -0.22 for the year to December 2023. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. In fact, it had free cash flow of CN¥676m in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of CN¥375.6m. Hengdian Group Tospo Lighting's free cash flow actually declined over the last year, which is disappointing, like non-biodegradable balloons. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
Surprisingly, given Hengdian Group Tospo Lighting's accrual ratio implied strong cash conversion, its paper profit was actually boosted by CN¥82m in unusual items. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. We can see that Hengdian Group Tospo Lighting's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to December 2023. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.
Our Take On Hengdian Group Tospo Lighting's Profit Performance
Hengdian Group Tospo Lighting's profits got a boost from unusual items, which indicates they might not be sustained and yet its accrual ratio still indicated solid cash conversion, which is promising. After taking into account all these factors, we think that Hengdian Group Tospo Lighting's statutory results are a decent reflection of its underlying earnings power. If you'd like to know more about Hengdian Group Tospo Lighting as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. At Simply Wall St, we found 2 warning signs for Hengdian Group Tospo Lighting and we think they deserve your attention.
Our examination of Hengdian Group Tospo Lighting has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.