Is Huasu HoldingsLtd (SZSE:000509) A Risky Investment?
Is Huasu HoldingsLtd (SZSE:000509) A Risky Investment?
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Huasu Holdings Co.,Ltd (SZSE:000509) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
大卫·伊本说得好,他说:“波动性不是我们关心的风险。我们关心的是避免资本的永久损失。”因此,当你评估公司的风险时,看来聪明的货币知道债务(通常涉及破产)是一个非常重要的因素。我们注意到,华塑控股有限公司, Ltd(深圳证券交易所股票代码:000509)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但真正的问题是这笔债务是否使公司面临风险。
When Is Debt A Problem?
债务何时会成为问题?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
债务为企业提供帮助,直到企业难以用新资本或自由现金流还清债务。资本主义的重要组成部分是 “创造性破坏” 的过程,在这个过程中,银行家无情地清算倒闭的企业。但是,更常见(但仍然令人痛苦)的情况是它必须以低价筹集新的股权资本,从而永久稀释股东。但是,通过取代稀释,对于需要资本以高回报率投资增长的企业来说,债务可能是一个非常好的工具。当我们考虑公司使用债务时,我们首先将现金和债务放在一起看。
How Much Debt Does Huasu HoldingsLtd Carry?
华塑控股有限公司背负了多少债务?
As you can see below, Huasu HoldingsLtd had CN¥135.9m of debt at September 2023, down from CN¥204.6m a year prior. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥39.9m, its net debt is less, at about CN¥96.0m.
如下所示,截至2023年9月,华塑控股有限公司的债务为1.359亿元人民币,低于去年同期的2.046亿加元。但是,由于其现金储备为3,990万元人民币,其净负债较少,约为9,600万元人民币。
How Strong Is Huasu HoldingsLtd's Balance Sheet?
华塑控股有限公司的资产负债表有多强?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Huasu HoldingsLtd had liabilities of CN¥445.5m due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥13.6m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥39.9m and CN¥194.9m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥224.3m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
根据上次报告的资产负债表,华塑控股有限公司的负债为4.455亿元人民币,12个月后到期的负债为1,360万元人民币。另一方面,它有一年内到期的现金为3,990万元人民币,还有价值1.949亿元人民币的应收账款。因此,它的负债总额为2.243亿元人民币,超过了现金和短期应收账款的总和。
Of course, Huasu HoldingsLtd has a market capitalization of CN¥3.70b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.
当然,华塑控股有限公司的市值为370亿元人民币,因此这些负债可能是可以控制的。但是,我们确实认为值得关注其资产负债表的实力,因为它可能会随着时间的推移而发生变化。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
为了扩大公司相对于收益的负债规模,我们计算其净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前的收益(EBITDA),将其利息和税前收益(EBIT)除以利息支出(利息保障)。因此,我们将债务与收益的关系考虑在内,包括和不包括折旧和摊销费用。
Huasu HoldingsLtd shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (6.4), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 0.03 times the interest expense. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Even worse, Huasu HoldingsLtd saw its EBIT tank 98% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is Huasu HoldingsLtd's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
由于息税前利润仅为利息支出的0.03倍,华塑控股有限公司的股东面临着净负债与息税折旧摊销前利润比率高(6.4)和利息覆盖率相当薄弱的双重打击。这意味着我们会认为它有沉重的债务负担。更糟糕的是,华塑控股有限公司的息税前利润在过去12个月中下降了98%。如果收益继续保持这一轨迹,那么偿还债务负担将比说服我们在雨中跑一场马拉松更难。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但是,影响未来资产负债表状况的是华塑控股有限公司的收益。因此,如果你想进一步了解其收益,可能值得看看这张长期收益趋势图。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Huasu HoldingsLtd saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
但是我们最终的考虑因素也很重要,因为公司无法用纸面利润来偿还债务;它需要冷硬现金。因此,合乎逻辑的步骤是研究息税前利润与实际自由现金流相匹配的比例。在过去的三年中,华塑控股有限公司的自由现金流总额为负数。尽管这可能是增长支出的结果,但它确实使债务风险大大增加。
Our View
我们的观点
On the face of it, Huasu HoldingsLtd's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at staying on top of its total liabilities; that's encouraging. We're quite clear that we consider Huasu HoldingsLtd to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that Huasu HoldingsLtd is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
从表面上看,Huasu HoldingsLtd将息税前利润转换为自由现金流使我们对该股持初步看法,其息税前利润增长率并不比一年中最繁忙的夜晚那家空荡荡的餐厅更具吸引力。但至少它在保持总负债水平方面相当不错;这令人鼓舞。我们很清楚,由于其资产负债表状况良好,我们认为华塑控股有限公司的风险确实相当大。出于这个原因,我们对该股非常谨慎,我们认为股东应密切关注其流动性。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但是,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中,远非如此。请注意,华塑控股有限公司在我们的投资分析中显示了1个警告信号,你应该知道...
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
当然,如果你是那种喜欢在没有债务负担的情况下购买股票的投资者,那么请立即查看我们的独家净现金增长股票清单。
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。