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Akeso, Inc.'s (HKG:9926) 25% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 15 06:10

Akeso, Inc. (HKG:9926) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 25% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 13% is also fairly reasonable.

Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Akeso's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 9.1x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Biotechs industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 10.5x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:9926 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry March 14th 2024

What Does Akeso's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

With revenue growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Akeso has been doing relatively well. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is moderate because investors think this strong revenue performance might be about to tail off. If the company manages to stay the course, then investors should be rewarded with a share price that matches its revenue figures.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Akeso will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Akeso would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an explosive gain to the company's top line. The latest three year period has also seen an incredible overall rise in revenue, aided by its incredible short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 8.3% per annum as estimated by the analysts watching the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 76% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

With this information, we find it interesting that Akeso is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Bottom Line On Akeso's P/S

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Akeso's P/S is back within range of the industry median. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Our look at the analysts forecasts of Akeso's revenue prospects has shown that its inferior revenue outlook isn't negatively impacting its P/S as much as we would have predicted. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. Circumstances like this present a risk to current and prospective investors who may see share prices fall if the low revenue growth impacts the sentiment.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Akeso that you need to take into consideration.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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