It's easy to match the overall market return by buying an index fund. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. Investors in Yuexiu Property Company Limited (HKG:123) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 55%. That falls noticeably short of the market decline of around 6.6%. Notably, shareholders had a tough run over the longer term, too, with a drop of 42% in the last three years. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 21% in the last three months.
Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last year, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Even though the Yuexiu Property share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. It could be that the share price was previously over-hyped.
It's surprising to see the share price fall so much, despite the improved EPS. So it's well worth checking out some other metrics, too.
Vibrant companies don't usually cut their dividends, so the recent reduction might help explain why the Yuexiu Property share price has been weak.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Yuexiu Property
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Yuexiu Property's TSR for the last 1 year was -49%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Yuexiu Property shareholders are down 49% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 6.6%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 3% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Yuexiu Property (including 1 which is concerning) .
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.