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There's Reason For Concern Over Guangdong Lifestrong Pharmacy Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:301111) Massive 38% Price Jump

広東ライフストロング薬局株式会社(SZSE:301111)の株価が38%急騰し、懸念の理由がある。

Simply Wall St ·  03/16 19:03

Those holding Guangdong Lifestrong Pharmacy Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301111) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 38% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 13% in the last twelve months.

After such a large jump in price, given around half the companies in China's Pharmaceuticals industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 3.4x, you may consider Guangdong Lifestrong Pharmacy as a stock to avoid entirely with its 10.5x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SZSE:301111 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry March 17th 2024

How Has Guangdong Lifestrong Pharmacy Performed Recently?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Guangdong Lifestrong Pharmacy over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Guangdong Lifestrong Pharmacy, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

Guangdong Lifestrong Pharmacy's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 4.7%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 17% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 45% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's alarming that Guangdong Lifestrong Pharmacy's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What Does Guangdong Lifestrong Pharmacy's P/S Mean For Investors?

Shares in Guangdong Lifestrong Pharmacy have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We've established that Guangdong Lifestrong Pharmacy currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Guangdong Lifestrong Pharmacy (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you need to take into consideration.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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